How Budget Deficits Grow Due to Trade Deficits
Excessive imports siphon demand for goods and services away from American producers and drive the government to run a budget deficit to cover that gap.
Job Quality Index and Manufacturing Employment Increase Slightly, but July Job Report Shows a Darkening Employment Landscape
the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI) was 82.99, up by +0.41% from the preceding month. Despite this slight increase in the JQI, the overall July 2024 Jobs Report from the government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics showed weak job growth.
Economic View: The Coming AI Productivity Disappointment
Euphoria over artificial intelligence has seized the technology industry, the stock market, and the world. But for the U.S. economy as a whole, the AI boom is very likely to be a huge productivity disappointment.
Domestic Market Share Index Rises in Q1 2024, Fueled by a Reduced Manufacturing Trade Deficit
The CPA Domestic Market Share Index (DMSI) rose slightly in the first quarter of 2024 as domestic manufacturing output edged up and the manufacturing trade deficit contracted slightly.
PVC Pipe Import Surge Threatening Domestic Industry and Essential Infrastructure
PVC pipe is critical for U.S. infrastructure, especially as electrical conduit in energy, data centers, and other high-tech sectors. U.S. PVC pipe imports are surging with 2024 import levels over twice as high as 2023 levels.
Global 10% Tariffs on U.S. Imports Would Raise Incomes and Pay for Large Income Tax Cuts for Lower/Middle Class
A 10% “universal” tariff on all U.S. imports, combined with a schedule of income tax cuts would generate economic growth of $728 billion and 2.8 million additional jobs, according to the CPA economic model of the U.S. economy.
Currency Misalignment Effects Far Outweigh the Effect of Tariffs: Subsidizing Imports and Penalizing U.S. Exports
USD Overvaluation affecting U.S. trade with the world by $364 billion, compared to only a $30 billion effect from current tariffs. Currency misalignment also has a larger effect in more heavily tariffed countries, such as China.
Biden Administration Mexico Steel Agreement Will Have Little to No Effect on Imports from Mexico
New Biden-Mexico Steel Agreement will only affect about 16% of imports from Mexico, based on CPA’s analysis (the White House estimates it will only affect just 13% of imports).
Economic View: “Comparative Advantage” Does Not Mean What You Think It Means
So what is comparative advantage? Comparative advantage occurs when the ratio of costs in one country differs from the ratio of costs in another.
Biden Administration Action to Increase Section 301 China Tariffs – The Details
This article includes details of products, rate increases, timelines, and the background behind the Biden Administration’s Section 301 Tariff Increase Proposal.
