China Trade Surplus and US Deficit Hit New Records, Driving Global Instability

Key Points China’s global trade surplus is heading for a new all-time high this year. Based on the first seven months of data, we estimate the full-year surplus will reach a record $886 billion. The U.S trade deficit will also set records this year, at an estimated $1.13 trillion trade deficit and a $1.34 trillion…

Job Quality Index Up Slightly As High & Low Quality Jobs Rise

WASHINGTON — The Coalition for a Prosperous America (CPA) today announced that the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI) edged up by 0.01% to 81.279 in July, as the addition of high-quality jobs slightly exceeded low-quality job additions. High-quality jobs increased in professional and business services and health care and social assistance. Low quality jobs increased…

Import Dependence and Inflation – A Global Comparison

  By Amanda Mayoral   Summary Points Higher import dependence makes countries more vulnerable to price shocks Countries that are more import dependent often experienced higher inflation during recent supply chain shocks than less import dependent countries. Comparing countries globally, every four percentage point increase in import dependence is associated with a one percentage point increase…

New CPA Trade Model Shows Broad Tariffs Would Create 7.5M Jobs

  By Jeff Ferry and Amanda Mayoral Broad-based tariffs including tariffs on manufactured imports would boost U.S. economy by 6% and create 7.5 million jobs. Real household incomes rise by 8%. Tariffs reduce imports and stimulate domestic manufacturing output by 18%. Tariffs would generate $556 billion in new revenue, enabling cuts in income tax or…

Pro-Growth Tariffs: Estimates from CPA’s New Trade Model

  By Jeff Ferry and Amanda Mayoral   Can tariffs can be effective at raising domestic output and income? We introduce real-world factor supply elasticities to the standard Global Trade and Analysis Project (GTAP) and find that real GDP can grow by nearly 6% and domestic manufacturing by 18%. The increase in GDP leads to…

Job Quality Index Slips As Economy Adds Jobs

WASHINGTON — The Coalition for a Prosperous America (CPA) today announced that the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI) edged down by 0.03% to 81.27 in June, as low-quality job growth slightly exceeded high-quality. Low-quality jobs increased in the healthcare, accommodation, and food service industries. High-quality jobs increased in professional and business services. The average weekly wage…