The DMSI decline is due to record imports in early 2025, as companies stockpiled inventory ahead of the Trump administration’s tariffs.
Overall DMSI is down 14.4% since 2002, equivalent to an annual loss of $1.3 trillion in domestic market share.
Q1 2025 manufacturing trade deficit at $421.9 billion.
Primary Metals and Chemical Products saw the largest market share losses from the pre-tariff import surge.
The CPA Domestic Market Share Index (DMSI) dropped abruptly in the first quarter of 2025 as the massive pre-tariff import surge driven by stockpiling heavily outweighed current U.S. manufacturing output.
The final quarterly DMSI for Q1 2025 was 62.9%, down 2.7% from Q4 2024 (65.6%). This indicates that 62.9% of U.S. manufacturing demand was met by domestic production. The remaining 37.1% was met by imports. The DMSI is the only regularly published indicator tracking the share of U.S. manufacturing demand that is met by domestic production. It is based entirely on U.S. government data.
The worsening DMSI was fueled largely by a massive surge in imports and a widened trade deficit. U.S. gross manufacturing output grew modestly by 0.7% in Q1 2025. Meanwhile, the total U.S. trade deficit increased by 25.1% in Q1 2025. This substantial widening of the trade deficit was driven by U.S. importers pushing to import and stockpile as much inventory as possible ahead of the Trump administration’s April tariff announcement.
While this recent drop is significant, the DMSI has been in steady decline over the past 20 years, as shown in Figure 1. The DMSI has only seen notable growth during the recovery from economic disruptions (the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID crisis). These were only temporary snapbacks amid a decades-long decline.
Figure 1: Domestic Market Share Index (DMSI) (2005-2025)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census; CPA Calculations Note: Blue line reflects quarterly data. Green line reflects four-quarter moving average.
The DMSI has fallen a total of 14.1% since 2002 when U.S. manufacturing accounted for 77.3% of total U.S. demand. This decline equals $1.3 trillion in annual lost domestic manufacturing market share today. This annual market value lost is equivalent to the total 2024 U.S. exports to China, Canada, Mexico, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany, South Korea, Brazil, and France combined.
2025 Q1 Trade Deficit in Manufactured Goods at $421.9 Billion
The early 2025 stockpiling import surge drastically expanded the U.S. trade deficit. Overall, the U.S. manufacturing trade deficit increased by $84.6 billion (25.1%) in Q1 2025. All but two U.S. manufacturing sectors have trade deficits, with the exceptions being Other Transportation Equipment (driven by Boeing sales and airplane part makers) and Petroleum and Coal Products. As shown in Figure 2, the sectors with the largest Q1 2025 trade deficits are Computers/Electronics (with an $85.1 billion deficit) and Primary Metals ($84.9 billion). Chemical Products ($73.7 billion) as well as Motor Vehicles and Parts ($66.4 billion) also posted significant Q1 trade deficits.
FIGURE 2:
The areas where the trade deficit increased the most were for Primary Metals with a $59 billion trade deficit increase (228%) and Chemical Products with a $40 billion trade deficit increase (119%).
Losses in Primary Metals and Chemical Products Drag Down the DMSI
Primary Metals and Chemical Products also had the largest DMSI declines, at 23.3% and 8.3% market share losses respectively. Meanwhile, as shown in Figure 3, most sectors saw relatively minor DMSI changes in Q1. The next highest losses were for Wood Products (0.8% loss) and Plastic/Rubber Products (0.5% loss).
Figure 3: DMSI Change by Manufacturing Sector (2025 Q1)
Other Transportation Equipment (dominated by Boeing sales) saw the largest DMSI increase at 3.1%, with other minor gains for Miscellaneous Manufacturing (1.7%), Apparel/Leather (1.4%), and Textiles (1.3%). All other sectors saw minimal DMSI changes of less than 1%.
Overall, the U.S. saw the largest market share losses in medium- to heavy-import affected sectors like Chemical Products (with a 58.4% domestic market share) and Primary Metals (35% domestic market share). As shown in Figure 4, this brings Primary Metals close to import-heavy sectors like Electrical Equipment and Appliances (32.6%).
FIGURE 4:
Computers and Electronics (20.5% domestic market share) and Apparel and Leather (12.3% domestic market share) remain the sectors with the lowest U.S. domestic market share. The U.S. has the highest domestic market share for Printing Activities (93.9%) and Petroleum and Coal (91.4%).
Methodology
The CPA Domestic Market Share Index (DMSI) measures the success of U.S. manufacturing producers in the U.S. market. Over the past two decades, imports have gained a larger share in the U.S. market, leading to millions of lost jobs and industrial decline in many regions and many sectors.
The DMSI is based on the value of production, imports, and exports in U.S. manufactured goods. It is calculated entirely from U.S. government data as the inverse of the import share:
Changes in the reported annual and quarterly DMSI reflect revisions in government data. For more detailed information on the DMSI including downloadable data, please contact: arechenberg@prosperousamerica.org.
CPA is the leading national, bipartisan organization exclusively representing domestic producers and workers across many industries and sectors of the U.S. economy.
Domestic Market Share Index Drops Significantly in Q1 2025, Fueled by Pre-Tariff Stockpiling
KEY POINTS
The CPA Domestic Market Share Index (DMSI) dropped abruptly in the first quarter of 2025 as the massive pre-tariff import surge driven by stockpiling heavily outweighed current U.S. manufacturing output.
The final quarterly DMSI for Q1 2025 was 62.9%, down 2.7% from Q4 2024 (65.6%). This indicates that 62.9% of U.S. manufacturing demand was met by domestic production. The remaining 37.1% was met by imports. The DMSI is the only regularly published indicator tracking the share of U.S. manufacturing demand that is met by domestic production. It is based entirely on U.S. government data.
The worsening DMSI was fueled largely by a massive surge in imports and a widened trade deficit. U.S. gross manufacturing output grew modestly by 0.7% in Q1 2025. Meanwhile, the total U.S. trade deficit increased by 25.1% in Q1 2025. This substantial widening of the trade deficit was driven by U.S. importers pushing to import and stockpile as much inventory as possible ahead of the Trump administration’s April tariff announcement.
While this recent drop is significant, the DMSI has been in steady decline over the past 20 years, as shown in Figure 1. The DMSI has only seen notable growth during the recovery from economic disruptions (the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID crisis). These were only temporary snapbacks amid a decades-long decline.
Figure 1: Domestic Market Share Index (DMSI) (2005-2025)
The DMSI has fallen a total of 14.1% since 2002 when U.S. manufacturing accounted for 77.3% of total U.S. demand. This decline equals $1.3 trillion in annual lost domestic manufacturing market share today. This annual market value lost is equivalent to the total 2024 U.S. exports to China, Canada, Mexico, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany, South Korea, Brazil, and France combined.
2025 Q1 Trade Deficit in Manufactured Goods at $421.9 Billion
The early 2025 stockpiling import surge drastically expanded the U.S. trade deficit. Overall, the U.S. manufacturing trade deficit increased by $84.6 billion (25.1%) in Q1 2025. All but two U.S. manufacturing sectors have trade deficits, with the exceptions being Other Transportation Equipment (driven by Boeing sales and airplane part makers) and Petroleum and Coal Products. As shown in Figure 2, the sectors with the largest Q1 2025 trade deficits are Computers/Electronics (with an $85.1 billion deficit) and Primary Metals ($84.9 billion). Chemical Products ($73.7 billion) as well as Motor Vehicles and Parts ($66.4 billion) also posted significant Q1 trade deficits.
FIGURE 2:
The areas where the trade deficit increased the most were for Primary Metals with a $59 billion trade deficit increase (228%) and Chemical Products with a $40 billion trade deficit increase (119%).
Losses in Primary Metals and Chemical Products Drag Down the DMSI
Primary Metals and Chemical Products also had the largest DMSI declines, at 23.3% and 8.3% market share losses respectively. Meanwhile, as shown in Figure 3, most sectors saw relatively minor DMSI changes in Q1. The next highest losses were for Wood Products (0.8% loss) and Plastic/Rubber Products (0.5% loss).
Figure 3: DMSI Change by Manufacturing Sector (2025 Q1)
Other Transportation Equipment (dominated by Boeing sales) saw the largest DMSI increase at 3.1%, with other minor gains for Miscellaneous Manufacturing (1.7%), Apparel/Leather (1.4%), and Textiles (1.3%). All other sectors saw minimal DMSI changes of less than 1%.
Overall, the U.S. saw the largest market share losses in medium- to heavy-import affected sectors like Chemical Products (with a 58.4% domestic market share) and Primary Metals (35% domestic market share). As shown in Figure 4, this brings Primary Metals close to import-heavy sectors like Electrical Equipment and Appliances (32.6%).
FIGURE 4:
Computers and Electronics (20.5% domestic market share) and Apparel and Leather (12.3% domestic market share) remain the sectors with the lowest U.S. domestic market share. The U.S. has the highest domestic market share for Printing Activities (93.9%) and Petroleum and Coal (91.4%).
Methodology
The CPA Domestic Market Share Index (DMSI) measures the success of U.S. manufacturing producers in the U.S. market. Over the past two decades, imports have gained a larger share in the U.S. market, leading to millions of lost jobs and industrial decline in many regions and many sectors.
The DMSI is based on the value of production, imports, and exports in U.S. manufactured goods. It is calculated entirely from U.S. government data as the inverse of the import share:
DMSI = 100 × (1 − (Imports / (Output + Imports − Exports))).
Changes in the reported annual and quarterly DMSI reflect revisions in government data. For more detailed information on the DMSI including downloadable data, please contact: arechenberg@prosperousamerica.org.
DMSI Report Archive
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