The foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar is soaring on an almost daily basis, causing problems here at home and abroad. There is growing talk of international coordination to stem the rise of the dollar and bring more stability to currency markets. Meanwhile there is support in Congress for the CPA proposal of a…
Key Points China’s global trade surplus is heading for a new all-time high this year. Based on the first seven months of data, we estimate the full-year surplus will reach a record $886 billion. The U.S trade deficit will also set records this year, at an estimated $1.13 trillion trade deficit and a $1.34 trillion…
In my 15 years in Silicon Valley, I found venture capitalists to be the shrewdest and smartest individuals there. The best of them have had previous experience as engineers or managers, sometimes both. They had experience at some of the best, most successful companies but also experience at some of the worst-managed companies (which far…
By Amanda Mayoral Summary Points Higher import dependence makes countries more vulnerable to price shocks Countries that are more import dependent often experienced higher inflation during recent supply chain shocks than less import dependent countries. Comparing countries globally, every four percentage point increase in import dependence is associated with a one percentage point increase…
By Jeff Ferry and Amanda Mayoral Broad-based tariffs including tariffs on manufactured imports would boost U.S. economy by 6% and create 7.5 million jobs. Real household incomes rise by 8%. Tariffs reduce imports and stimulate domestic manufacturing output by 18%. Tariffs would generate $556 billion in new revenue, enabling cuts in income tax or…
In his recent WSJ column “Strong Dollar Wins the Inflation Battle in New Spin on Currency Wars,” James Mackintosh suggests that the dollar’s sharp appreciation in recent years has been good for America and may be part of “an essential rebalancing of the global economy.” The costs of a bloated dollar are very high. Trade…
The economy is moving from growth to contraction, as Thursday’s 0.9% decline in GDP tells us. The debate over whether we are in a recession today is mostly pundits rehearsing their political messages for television, with the November election looming. We are almost certain to be in recession by year-end or early next year. I’m…
By Amanda Mayoral This article is an expanded version of testimony delivered by Ms. Mayoral to the U.S. International Trade Commission on July 22, 2022. In his first State of the Union address, President Biden said “When I think about climate change, I think jobs”. I believe the president is correct about…
This article is an expanded version of testimony delivered by Mr. Ferry to the U.S. International Trade Commission on July 22, 2022. The Section 232 steel tariffs have benefited the U.S. steel industry and its workforce American steelworkers earned an average of $117,200 last year, making steel one of the best-paying industrial sectors in…
By Amanda Mayoral Summary Corporate profits grew by double and sometimes triple digits during the COVID-19 pandemic. Worker wages did not. Record corporate profits did not stop these importers’ lobbyists from pursuing even higher profits by petitioning for 301 China tariffs exemptions. Removing tariffs on Chinese imports will only further enrich transnational enterprises…