Global capital flows are the driving force behind the rise of the dollar, which rose 3.9% in 2021. In the last ten years, the dollar is up 25.5%[1]. The US attracts capital for many reasons, including tax avoidance, speculative trading, and a relatively small amount of genuine investment. The deregulation of financial markets in the…
U.S. Trade Policy: Over Half a Century of Unreciprocated Tariff Cuts By Amanda Mayoral, CPA Economist Summary Points: The US held high tariff rates from 1816 until the middle of the 20th century The US then cut tariffs more than most countries, often unilaterally, without also requiring tariff reductions by others Today, the US has…
A new paper by the “China Shock” economists adds to the growing mountain of literature documenting the costs of free trade events to the U.S. economy over the past half century. Their new paper, On the Persistence of the China Shock, shows that increased unemployment, protracted withdrawal from the labor force, and other social ills…
Background When inflation threatens America’s stability and economic growth, the Fed raises the Federal Funds Rate (FFR). This reduces domestic demand for borrowed funds, and that reduces the growth of domestic money in circulation and thus the rate of inflation. This approach worked reasonably well from the 1930s when the FFR became an official policy…
Not All Tariffs Are the Same: A Case to Consider Optimal Tariff Policy By Amanda Mayoral, CPA Economist Summary Points: Despite popular misconception, economic theory has long suggested that tariffs can benefit a country, particularly one like the US. The most advantageous tariffs are optimal tariffs. This is because optimal tariffs balance the…
Summary points: The import price of steel fell in the period following the 2018 imposition of a 25% steel tariff, an indicator that steel tariffs were not passed entirely onto consumers. Steel tariffs did not lead to a proportional rise in consumer prices of steel-intensive goods, such as automobiles. In many instances, firms will internalize…
In June, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai gave a speech in which she outlined her vision of worker-centered trade, a popular phrase among Biden administration officials. According to Tai: “Build Back Better starts by growing the economy from the bottom up and the middle out and putting workers at the center of our economic plans…In…
CPA member Doug Berger started Industry Reimagined 2030 this year. Here is how he imagines it. Hint: he doesn’t think the government can fully protect us, or throw money our way forever. Something else has to be done.
Long-term economic growth is the single most important objective for any nation. As growth economist and Nobel laureate Paul Romer has said: “For a nation, the choices that determine whether income doubles in one generation or two dwarf all other economic policy concerns.” In the United States, real income per capita grew in the 3%-4%…
Goods Deficit Also Sets Monthly Record at $93.2 Billion Department of Commerce figures published this morning show that in June the U.S. reported a trade deficit of $75.7 billion, a new record for U.S. and world history. The deficit was 6.7 percent higher than the May figure, and 49.4 percent worse than the year-ago June…