Key Points We find that further decoupling from China would grow the U.S. economy and result in higher incomes and more jobs for Americans and the rebuilding of many critical manufacturing sectors. The removal of MFN (most favored nation) status for China would increase the tariff rate on imports from China from the current Column…
A comprehensive new CPA analysis of 927 U.S. cities and towns shows that job loss in manufacturing due to China imports since 2001 has affected almost every community in the U.S., including towns and cities in all fifty states.
Key Points CPA modeled former President Trump’s recent proposal regarding a 10% universal tariff. Our simulation finds that the tariff change would increase economic growth and create opportunity for Americans through increasing incomes and job creation. Under the proposal, real household incomes would increase by nearly $8,000 and 3.3 million new jobs would be created.…
Key Points Steel imports from Mexico have surged in recent years. Some steel products, such as rebar have increased by several thousand percent over previous import levels. Mexico has violated the 2019 U.S.-Mexico agreement to maintain steel imports at past levels. The agreement was made when Mexico was exempted from the 25% steel tariffs under…
Economic models used to forecast the impact of international trade agreements have an in-built bias to favor free trade. This has led these models to underestimate repeatedly the damage done to U.S. manufacturing industry by trade agreements, dating back to NAFTA. The bias or rigidity in these models can be corrected by modifying some of…
Key Points The Section 301 tariffs imposed in 2018 on Chinese imports reduced U.S. dependence on China. While U.S. imports surged by 39% between 2017 and 2022, China imports were up very slightly, and still below their 2018 peak. As a result, China fell from 21.6% of U.S. imports in 2017 to just 16.5% in…
Key Points U.S. Intelligence Community reports document that China poses the single greatest threat to U.S. economic and national security. Its malign activities include direct threats to the U.S. and our allies, systemic human rights abuses and genocide, and consistent actions to undermine democracies around the world and the rules-based international order. The U.S. government’s…
Key Points The trade deficit with China has cost the U.S. 3.82 million jobs since 2001. Three-quarters of the job loss is concentrated in manufacturing, a total of 2.89 million manufacturing jobs lost. Job loss has been most concentrated in tradeable sectors. This has led to a decline of high paying jobs. The state-by-state analysis…
Key Points Global current account imbalances (consisting mostly of trade) increased in 2021, the most recent data available. As a percentage of world GDP, total imbalances reached 3.6%, equivalent to $3.3 trillion. Imbalances have worsened during the pandemic and the post-pandemic period, driven by rising goods trade flows, mainly from Asia to North America. Persistent…
Key Points The U.S. goods trade deficit ballooned to $1.19 trillion in 2022, an increase of 9% from the previous year. This is a U.S. and world record. Imports of electronic goods, machinery & appliances, and vehicles account for more than half of the trade deficit. While China continues to be the leading source of…