CPA Briefing Paper: Why Economic Forecasts of the Effects of Trade Action Are Consistently Wrong
Jeff Ferry, Chief Economist Steven Byers Ph.D., Senior Economist June 2019 This Briefing Paper looks at the shortcomings of economic models of trade action, their causes, and modifications to improve the accuracy of these forecasting models. Executive Summary From the adoption of NAFTA in 1994, through the Trump administration’s 2018 tariffs, economic forecasts have…