It’s been three full months of record-high tariffs, and yet rolling 12-month overall inflation came in at 2.7% in July, the same percentage rate as June, according to last week’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) inflation report. Core inflation (CPI), which excludes food and oil, rose 3.1% in July, up from 2.9% in June.
The trade deficit fell 16% in June to a low $60.2 billion, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Tuesday, but despite a 3.7% reduction in imports, the goods deficit for the month was surprisingly resilient compared to recent years without tariffs.
On July 17, at an event at New York University, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Christopher Waller, said that tariffs are not inflationary. “Tariffs are one-off increases in the price level and do not cause inflation beyond a temporary surge,” he said.
An economist with the San Francisco Federal Reserve wrote in their “Economic Letter” from July 14 that tariffs are going to lead to much higher inflation in the weeks ahead. There’s just one caveat, and senior economist Mauricio Ulate admits it up front.
Tariffs on Southeast Asia will go up at least two-fold by August 1 from the current rate of 10%, based on screen-shot letters President Trump shared on his Truth Social account on Monday.
A Market Access Charge (MAC) might be the perfect addition to the tariff agenda; a surgical tool to tax capital inflows.
Following April’s trade deficit data, which showed a complete freefall in trade during the “Liberation Day” tariff month, May’s trade deficit rose by 18.7% on a monthly basis to $71.5 billion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Tariffs were supposed to be inflationary, but so far, they’ve been proven wrong. Inflation over the last several months was not caused by 10% tariffs on Southeast Asia, nor by the short-lived 145% tariffs on China.
Last year, it wasn’t even in the Top 10. This year, they’re number one. General Motors was ranked as the most China-exposed U.S. multinational by Strategy Risks, a political risk consultancy in New York.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stepped into somewhat hostile territory in the Senate Finance Committee hearing on Thursday. But despite dramatic criticism from Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-OR) and other top Democrats on the Committee, Bessent took an early victory lap on tariffs.
