Pro-growth tariffs working paper cover

Pro-Growth Tariffs: Modified Economic Model Shows Domestic Growth (Updated)

Economic models used to forecast the impact of international trade agreements have an in-built bias to favor free trade. This has led these models to underestimate repeatedly the damage done to U.S. manufacturing industry by trade agreements, dating back to NAFTA. The bias or rigidity in these models can be corrected by modifying some of…


Section 301 Tariffs Reduced U.S. Dependence on China, Decoupling Has Begun

Key Points The Section 301 tariffs imposed in 2018 on Chinese imports reduced U.S. dependence on China. While U.S. imports surged by 39% between 2017 and 2022, China imports were up very slightly, and still below their 2018 peak. As a result, China fell from 21.6% of U.S. imports in 2017 to just 16.5% in…


Taiwan Agreement Risks Treasury Rewriting Customs Law Globally

On June 1, 2023, the United States and Taiwan signed “the first agreement under the U.S.-Taiwan Initiative on 21st Century Trade.” “Initiative”? “21st Century Trade”? Sleepy terms that convey a classic “nothing-burger”. But that’s never been the case with trade agreements. This agreement, ostensibly for Taiwan, sets out expectations for how the U.S. and Taiwan…