Update: Across-the-Board Tariffs on China with Retaliation & Federal Spending Create Over 1 Million Jobs in Five Years

This Working Paper presents the results of a CPA econometric model showing that a permanent tariff on Chinese imports would stimulate the US economy. by Jeff Ferry (Chief Economist) and Steven Byers (Senior Economist) The Coalition for a Prosperous America (CPA) has updated a prior study on the impact of permanent tariffs on all Chinese imports. Specifically, we…

CPA Briefing Paper: Why Economic Forecasts of the Effects of Trade Action Are Consistently Wrong

Jeff Ferry, Chief Economist Steven Byers Ph.D., Senior Economist June 2019 This Briefing Paper looks at the shortcomings of economic models of trade action, their causes, and modifications to improve the accuracy of these forecasting models. Executive Summary From the adoption of NAFTA in 1994, through the Trump administration’s 2018 tariffs, economic forecasts have consistently…