CPA Trade Counsel Charles Benoit and Chief Economist Jeff Ferry told Monday’s Prosperity Summit attendees that most economic models are worse at predicting trade outcomes than the local weatherman is at forecasting precipitation levels 10 days out.
The US International Trade Commission (ITC) recently released a comprehensive analysis of the economic impact of all trade agreements the United States has entered into since 1985. Trade agreement negotiation, passage and implementation has been controversial throughout this time period. The ITC report is significant as the first recognition by a federal government trade agency…
Key Points CPA’s economic modeling of a U.S.-U.K. free trade agreement that cut tariffs to zero between the two countries shows that such an agreement would increase unemployment by more than 2,000 jobs and reduce U.S. GDP by $142 million. This economic model includes for the first time a methodology for estimating job loss due…
In October 2019, CPA’s Economics team of Jeff Ferry and Steven Byers won the NABE Mennis Award for best economics paper of the year for “Decoupling from China: an economic analysis of the impact on the US economy of a permanent tariff on Chinese imports.” CPA’s paper used an economic model to forecast that…
