McConnell and Pence Trash Trump Tariffs, But the Data Proves Them Wrong

Despite support for tariffs among American voters, many career Republican politicians still oppose this vital policy tool while they cling to outdated “free trade” ideals.

“I’m not a fan of tariffs,” Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) reminded us this week as he criticized former President Donald Trump’s comment that he would put 200% tariffs on products from Mexico if John Deere moved production there. For McConnell, tariffs supposedly “raise prices for American consumers,” while he claims to be a “free trade Republican” who values the jobs created by exports.

Former Vice President Mike Pence echoes this sentiment. He’s spent the last few years distancing himself from the Trump administration, arguing that “protectionist tariffs” make products more expensive for all Americans.

But both McConnell and Pence are ignoring a key fact: since 2018, tariffs on Chinese imports have been in place, yet inflation remained below 2.3%—until the COVID-19 supply chain shocks pushed prices higher. These inflationary pressures had nothing to do with the tariffs themselves, which did not significantly contribute to rising prices.

The reality is that tariffs have been overwhelmingly positive for the U.S. economy and American workers. A recent U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) report found that the China tariffs boosted domestic production across all twelve industries studied, from steel to solar panels.

And let’s be clear: tariffs are not a “tax on consumers,” as McConnell and Pence claim. Far from it.

The USITC report shows that price increases were minimal—just 3% to 4%—and mostly confined to intermediate goods, not everyday consumer items. Additionally, a study by prominent economists, including Gita Gopinath (now at the IMF) and Brent Neiman (now at the U.S. Treasury), concluded that tariff-related price hikes were so small they were “not easily visible” in retail prices.

It’s why Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen admitted that consumers do not see any “meaningful increase” in prices because of tariffs when the Biden administration decided to keep all the China tariffs in place—and even expanding them in some sectors.

Unfortunately, “free trade” Republicans continue to double down on the same failed trade policies that resulted in the offshoring of millions of American jobs. While McConnell touts exports as the key to economic success, he conveniently ignores that America’s trade deficit has ballooned over the years, largely because imports have replaced American-made products.

His home state of Kentucky bragged about record exports—$40 billion in 2023—but also saw record imports. This trade imbalance hurts American workers, including his own constituents. Kentucky’s median household income grew by just $3,800 between 2010 and 2021, which doesn’t even keep pace with inflation. Towns like Mayfield, KY lost more than a third of their manufacturing jobs due to trade policies that prioritize cheap imports over local production.

Pence’s home state of Indiana tells a similar story. While the state hit record exports in 2023, it also saw record imports. Wage growth in Indiana has been anemic: between 2010 and 2021, the state’s median household income increased by just $2,600—barely a dent when adjusted for inflation. Meanwhile, Indiana lost 129,500 jobs between 2000 and 2023. If tariffs are the problem, zero-tariff policies certainly haven’t helped.

McConnell’s opposition to tariffs might be influenced by personal ties. His wife, Elaine Chao, comes from a prominent Taiwanese family with deep connections to Chinese businesses. Her late sister, Angela, sat on the board of the China State Shipbuilding Corporation, a Chinese state-owned defense contractor. She also served as Chairwoman for Bank of China’s U.S. operations for risk management. It’s interesting that an American citizen was on the board of state-owned company that builds ships for China’s Navy.

Pence, too, may have conflicting interests. He’s close to executives at Cummins Inc., an Indiana-based multinational that manufactures engines in China. Cummins, like many global companies, prefers the ability to freely import goods from low-cost, low-regulation countries into the U.S., avoiding tariffs. Pence’s brother held a senior role at Cummins for 36 years, retiring in 2017.

McConnell and Pence come from a Republican establishment that is stuck in a 1990s, country club mindset—catering to corporate elites and multinational corporations who benefit from mass consumption of cheaply made foreign goods.

These politicians fail to understand Trump’s appeal and why his policies resonate with Americans who remember when their hometowns had vibrant industries before jobs were shipped overseas by corporate interests, enabled by politicians like McConnell and Pence. They represent an outdated ideology that prioritizes profits over the well-being of American workers and local economies—an ideology that the GOP would be wise to ignore.