Beef prices are part of the “cost of living” narrative that could hamper the America First Trade Policy agenda as Trump’s critics will continue to blame tariffs.
Most of our beef still comes in from Mexico and Canada at duty free rates, but Australia and New Zealand face 10% and 15% tariffs, respectively, and Brazil faces record high 50% tariffs.
The USDA has been instituting bans on live cattle imports from Mexico since November 2024 due to phytosanitary concerns. At the time, Mexico found a case of New World Screwworm on some ranches in southern Mexico. This initial ban was a precautionary response to the flesh-eating parasitic fly, but after a brief lifting of the ban this year, the USDA reinstated it in May. It has remained in effect since.
The same race-to-the-bottom cost cutting that let Mexican beef undercut U.S. ranchers has now backfired—triggering an outbreak that shut down the very imports we became dependent on.
In 2024, the U.S. beef trade recorded yet another deficit for fresh and frozen beef. The U.S. imported approximately 4.6 billion pounds of beef, a 24% increase from 2023, setting a new record. Mexico and Canada accounted for 36% of U.S. beef and veal imports in 2024. However, this figure understates their true share. The U.S. also imported 1.25 million live cattle and calves from Mexico and another 800,000 from Canada that year—and no live cattle from any other country. Other key suppliers included Australia (24% of beef and veal imports) and Brazil (15%)—pre-tariffs. U.S. beef exports declined, totaling about 3.03 billion pounds, down 1% from the previous year.
This means the U.S. had a beef trade deficit by volume of roughly 1.57 billion pounds in 2024.
The increase in imports competes directly with U.S. ranchers, forcing ranchers to lower prices to unsustainable developing-country levels and reduce head counts for cattle here. Consequently, strong domestic demand gets met increasingly by imports. The big multinational packers increasingly buy cheap imported beef while pushing up domestic prices since there is no domestic alternative. American ranchers do not benefit from the strong demand and high prices, and the cost of doing business domestically keeps rising due to land costs, state taxes and regulations. Their incentives to expand their herds are non-existent at this point.
“This is why the herd has yet to measurably begin expansion even though cattle prices began hitting all time highs in early 2023,” said Bullard. “You would expect that alone to trigger investments but it has not because they all know the market is dysfunctional and that no structural reforms have been made. Hopefully, President Trump’s call for an investigation will result in antitrust enforcement actions that will reform this broken market and incentivize the rebuilding of the United States’ diminished cow herd.”
American ranchers aren’t getting rich off high prices, said Rechenberg. Companies sure are, however.
“The numbers of cattle ranchers in the U.S. are falling. They’ve been squeezed by both the big meatpackers and cheap beef imports from suppliers with weaker sanitary regulations,” Rechenberg said. “The profits from high beef prices aren’t going to the people who raise cattle here; they’re going to the meat packers.”
Trump’s Question to Meat Packers — Where’s the Beef? — Opens Market Manipulation Investigation
If Argentina imports aren’t lowering supermarket beef prices, perhaps an investigation into the cartelization of the big, globalist meat packers will finally have an impact?
Following a roughly two-week long losing debate with ranchers over beef inflation—currently at Biden-era inflation levels of 14% in the last 12 months—President Trump said on social media he ordered an investigation into Brazilian multinationals JBS and National Beef, and American brand names like Tyson Foods. These are part of the “Big Four” meat processing plants that recently agreed to pay $87.5 million to settle a class action lawsuit alleging price fixing and restricting domestic supply.
Attorney General Pam Bondi said the investigation is underway. Assistant Attorney General Abigail Slater, a veteran antitrust lawyer, is handling the case. Her expertise has been centered on antitrust issues in technology, communications, and media. Upon taking office, she explicitly flagged agriculture as a sector of concern. Slater has no ties to “Big Ag,” or the companies she will be investigating.
Slater’s anti-trust investigation will shed more light on these companies. They have used their market position to displace domestic beef with imports. The question becomes: what is illegal about it?
“There has long been a disconnect between cattle prices and beef prices, and we believe this is evidence of market failure,” said Bill Bullard, CPA Board of Directors member and Chairman of R-Calf USA. They put out a statement on Friday welcoming the investigation.
American ranchers need something to come from this investigation. If nothing comes of it, more imports will not solve beef inflation. It never has. Something else has to be done, including tighter tariff rate quotas (TRQ) and easing up on regulations that make it near impossible for an independent meat packer to stay solvent. These are just some of the actions the Trump administration can take to signal to the domestic rancher that they are protected, for real.
Otherwise, the U.S. cattle herd will keep shrinking.
We are moving towards an American meat market that is import heavy, if not import reliant. Professional ranchers, who make a living raising and selling cattle for food, will go the way of the hobby farmer who survives on other income or made their fortunes elsewhere.
Shrinking herds means shrinking clout for domestic producers; their negotiation powers are limited. Lackluster domestic supply translates into higher prices for consumers. But the ranchers aren’t cashing in on beef inflation.
USDA data show that the gap between what ranchers are paid for cattle and what consumers pay for beef has widened sharply in recent years—clear evidence that meatpackers are capturing an ever-larger share of the final beef dollar even as U.S. cattle inventories decline.
“The result is a market that looks competitive on paper but operates like a cartel—where a handful of corporations control price setting, labeling, and distribution from feedlot to grocery shelf,” CPA economist Andrew Rechenberg wrote in a Nov. 3 report calling out meat packers for beef inflation.
Beef & the Rising Cost of Living
Beef prices are part of the “cost of living” narrative that could hamper the America First Trade Policy agenda as Trump’s critics will continue to blame tariffs.
Most of our beef still comes in from Mexico and Canada at duty free rates, but Australia and New Zealand face 10% and 15% tariffs, respectively, and Brazil faces record high 50% tariffs.
The USDA has been instituting bans on live cattle imports from Mexico since November 2024 due to phytosanitary concerns. At the time, Mexico found a case of New World Screwworm on some ranches in southern Mexico. This initial ban was a precautionary response to the flesh-eating parasitic fly, but after a brief lifting of the ban this year, the USDA reinstated it in May. It has remained in effect since.
The same race-to-the-bottom cost cutting that let Mexican beef undercut U.S. ranchers has now backfired—triggering an outbreak that shut down the very imports we became dependent on.
In 2024, the U.S. beef trade recorded yet another deficit for fresh and frozen beef. The U.S. imported approximately 4.6 billion pounds of beef, a 24% increase from 2023, setting a new record. Mexico and Canada accounted for 36% of U.S. beef and veal imports in 2024. However, this figure understates their true share. The U.S. also imported 1.25 million live cattle and calves from Mexico and another 800,000 from Canada that year—and no live cattle from any other country. Other key suppliers included Australia (24% of beef and veal imports) and Brazil (15%)—pre-tariffs. U.S. beef exports declined, totaling about 3.03 billion pounds, down 1% from the previous year.
This means the U.S. had a beef trade deficit by volume of roughly 1.57 billion pounds in 2024.
The increase in imports competes directly with U.S. ranchers, forcing ranchers to lower prices to unsustainable developing-country levels and reduce head counts for cattle here. Consequently, strong domestic demand gets met increasingly by imports. The big multinational packers increasingly buy cheap imported beef while pushing up domestic prices since there is no domestic alternative. American ranchers do not benefit from the strong demand and high prices, and the cost of doing business domestically keeps rising due to land costs, state taxes and regulations. Their incentives to expand their herds are non-existent at this point.
“This is why the herd has yet to measurably begin expansion even though cattle prices began hitting all time highs in early 2023,” said Bullard. “You would expect that alone to trigger investments but it has not because they all know the market is dysfunctional and that no structural reforms have been made. Hopefully, President Trump’s call for an investigation will result in antitrust enforcement actions that will reform this broken market and incentivize the rebuilding of the United States’ diminished cow herd.”
American ranchers aren’t getting rich off high prices, said Rechenberg. Companies sure are, however.
“The numbers of cattle ranchers in the U.S. are falling. They’ve been squeezed by both the big meatpackers and cheap beef imports from suppliers with weaker sanitary regulations,” Rechenberg said. “The profits from high beef prices aren’t going to the people who raise cattle here; they’re going to the meat packers.”
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