Trade Deficit Takes Huge 19.2% Leap In September; Automotive and Semiconductor Deficit Bigger Than Sept. 2023

Trade Deficit Takes Huge 19.2% Leap In September; Automotive and Semiconductor Deficit Bigger Than Sept. 2023

The U.S. goods and services deficit took a surprising 19.3% leap to $84.4 billion in September, with exports falling by 1.2% and imports rising by 3%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Tuesday.

Per usual, the goods deficit alone paints an uglier picture. The September goods deficit broke a record for the year, at $108.98 billion. That’s a monthly record for the last two years. The U.S. now has a $881.14 billion goods gap with the rest of the world for the first nine months of the year, which is higher than 2023, but lower than 2022. If September trends of plus-$100 billion deficits continue, the U.S. will record a $1.18 trillion deficit this year, surpassing the last two years’ deficit totals.

Key segments of the U.S. manufacturing base continue to see rising trade gaps.  

Passenger car exports totaled $45.17 billion year-to-date ending in September, but the U.S. imported $162.14 billion worth of cars for a deficit of $116.97 billion. That beats the $103.46 billion deficit recorded by September 2023 and the $93.7 billion deficit recorded just before the pandemic years, in 2019.  The U.S. imports most of its cars from Mexico ($35.34 billion YTD), followed by Japan ($29.70 billion) and South Korea $29.37 billion).

Auto parts deficits are trending upwards.  The U.S. exported $44.58 billion worth of car parts, most of it to Mexico, as of September. But the auto industry spent $110.07 billion on imports for a deficit of $65.49 billion so far this year.  Last year’s deficit was $57.56 billion as of September, and $40.35 billion year-to-date 2019, pre-Covid.

The semiconductor business exported less this year than in 2023 as of September. Year-to-date exports were valued at $48.19 billion, but imports were valued at $671.12 billion for a deficit of $12.93 billion. That’s close to the $12.23 billion deficit recorded by September 2023 but much higher than the $2.55 billion deficit recorded in chips as of September 2019.

The U.S. has a $207.91 billion deficit in advanced technology products, bigger than the year-to-date September deficits in the last two years. The deficit is led by information and communications technology equipment like routers and modems, followed by advanced biotechnology laboratory equipment.

Worth noting, on the commodities side, U.S. soybean exports for the year were valued at $18.068 billion, which is less than the $19.14 billion recorded as of September back in 2019. That was the first year that China retaliated against the Section 301 tariffs by imposing massive restrictions on U.S. soy. Those restrictions have been lifted.

China Remains Leading Deficit Nation. Mexico is No. 2.

The U.S. goods deficit with China rose in September to $26.88 billion from $24.65 billion in August.  The year-to-date September deficit is higher than 2023 at $216.52 billion versus $210.42 billion over the same period last year. The true value of our China imports r is likely much higher thanks  to the de minimis provision which allows for China to ship products to the U.S. duty free if priced under $800. This has led to the growth of companies like Temu and Shein, and the rise of the direct-from-China e-commerce model. Even Amazon is now getting in on the game, opening warehouses in China for direct shipment to the U.S.

The deficit with Mexico rose to $16 billion in September vs $14.25 billion in August. The annual goods gap with Mexico is also higher at $125.45 billion so far this year ending in September compared with $112.72 billion a year ago.

When all of the countries in the European Union are combined, they track ahead of Mexico.  The U.S.-European Union goods deficit rose to $23.87 billion in September from $19.09 billion in August. So far this year, the U.S. has a trade deficit of $176.09 billion with the rich EU, up from $157.15 billion.

As of the second quarter of 2024, household consumption expenditure in the European Union accounted for 52.7% of its nominal Gross Domestic Product  By comparison, as of the third quarter of 2024, household consumption in the United States accounted for approximately 67.9% of GDP.

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