Monthly Trade Deficit Suddenly Rises 8.7%, Surpassing Three-Month Trend Line

Monthly Trade Deficit Suddenly Rises 8.7%, Surpassing Three-Month Trend Line

The monthly goods and services trade deficit between the U.S. and the rest of the world has skyrocketed by a whopping 8.7% to $74.6 billion in April, putting the month well above the three month trend line.  On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said that exports were far outpaced by imports, with exports up 0.8% to $263.7 billion, which is around average, and imports up 2.4% to $338.2 billion.

The numbers are even worse when the services industries are removed and we only focus on the goods trade. 

The April goods trade deficit was the highest on the year at $99.2 billion. The last time the U.S. recorded a $99 billion-plus monthly goods gap was in June 2022. 

Pharmaceuticals were the top imported item yet again, with the U.S. spending $8.9 billion more on imports in the Jan-April 2024 period vs the Jan-April 2023 period.  

Passenger car imports rose by $3.02 billion month-over-month, making it the biggest mover in terms of import values compared to March.

The April trade deficit for goods was the highest all year. The European Union led the trade gap with $22.5 billion, even beating out China’s $22.1 billion. Mexico was the third largest source of the goods deficit in April, at $12.8 billion, a significant drop on the import leaderboard for them. Year-to-date, the U.S. has a $376.93 billion goods deficit with the world, up from $362.61 billion in 2023.

What Are We Importing?

For commodities, crude oil is the lead import in the commodities space. The U.S. spent $14.35 billion on crude oil in April, up from $13.68 billion in March.  

Some of these raw materials imports are surprising in terms of value. The U.S. imported as much in organic chemicals as it does fruits and frozen juice. The U.S. imported $2.05 billion worth of seafood, which is more than the $1.2 billion imported in iron and steel.

For manufactured goods, it’s the usual five items.

With the U.S. goods deficit for January through April at $376.93 billion (total balance of payments basis), the table is now set for another trillion-dollar goods gap in 2024.

For all the talk lately of Mexico surpassing China as America’s lead source of imports, when looked at from 10,000 feet up, China is very much in the pole position. When China outsourcing partners like Vietnam are added to the mix, Mexico has a ways to go to dethrone them in what Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen likes to refer to as “friend-shoring”.  

Of the top five countries that comprise our goods deficit, the trade gap with Mexico rose more than the other four combined compared with the first quarter of 2023.

First Quarter 2024 Trade Deficits

China: -$69.46 billion ($620 million less than 1Q2023)

Mexico: -$43.81 billion ($6.02 billion more than 1Q2023)

Vietnam: -$27.61 billion ($3.31 billion more than 1Q2023)

Germany: -$20.99 billion ($110 million less than 1Q2023)

Japan: -$18.52 billion ($1.67 billion more than 1Q2023)

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