Imports did not vanish, but their growth rate was flat at zero percent in February compared to January after nearly two months of importers rushing in orders ahead of tariffs. February goods and services imports were $401 billion, a statistically insignificant change from January, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said.
On the goods side, U.S. imports fell slightly from $328.9 billion worth of goods in February versus $329.4 billion in January. These figures include crude oil, but crude oil imports were about the same in February and January at $13.9 billion, respectively.
So far this year, the goods deficit stands at $302.8 billion, which is up from the $185 billion in the first two months of 2024 due to companies front running the new tariff regime. What we know so far about tariffs is that countries hit with the so-called reciprocal tariffs were given a 90 day reprieve. They still face the 10% baseline tariff, which has not been rescinded. This is the revenue tariff strategy designed to raise revenue to help make the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent. That law expires next year and would massively increase taxes on individuals and companies large and small. USMCA is exempt from those tariffs. We also have Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and automotive.
Imports of car parts and accessories in February were valued at $11.9 billion versus $11.4 billion in January. Passenger car imports were $17 billion versus $17.5 billion in January, so we have not seen any new surge.
Numbers from auto exporting countries like Mexico look benign compared to January. There has been no major jump witnessed in exports in passenger vehicles or parts.
“February’s flat import growth suggests that claims of trade disruptions arising from tariffs were premature. The front-loading of imports witnessed at the end of last year and in January of this year appear to be balancing out, suggesting that tariff policies are fostering predictability and stability for American businesses,” said Mihir Torsekar, CPA’s Senior Economist.
Agriculture Deficit and Pharmaceuticals Deficit Unchanged
Last week, Senate and House Committees heard from new USTR Jamieson Greer. Nearly every member complained about agricultural trade, with House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO-8) noting that “We ran a $32 billion agricultural trade deficit last year.”
Actually, it was $38.2 billion in 2024, and so far this year the U.S. has a $10.5 billion deficit in agricultural commodities, exporting $27.9 billion and importing $38.4 billion year-to-date.
Seafood remains one of our biggest food gaps with the world. The U.S. exported $290 million worth of seafood in February and imported $1.9 billion. Year-to-date, the seafood deficit stands at around $3.73 billion so far this year. How much of this comes from overfished waters in Asia is unknown.
The pharmaceutical industry remains one of the biggest sources of the U.S. trade deficit. In February, the U.S. exported $8.3 billion worth of pharmaceuticals and imported $24.5 billion worth. This includes both branded and generic drugs. The U.S. imports well over half of its generic drug needs.
Another major deficit was in the finished metal shapes category, which are goods often made from steel. The U.S. has a roughly $28 billion deficit in that space, even worse than pharma.
Lastly, on a country by country basis, the China trade deficit fell by $10 billion in February to $21.1 billion. China is the biggest, single source of the U.S. deficit, something that will surely shrink in the months ahead if the 100%+ tariffs remain in place. Switzerland came in second with a $17.7 billion deficit for February, which is unusually high for them. Mexico was stable at $14.8 billion and the EU deficit rose to $25.4 billion from $23.2 billion in January. In fact, the month-over-month deficit with the EU rose by about $1 billion more than the deficit with Mexico.
Vietnam, long considered the go-to alternative to mainland China, has remained steady with a $10.9 billion deficit, down from $12.04 billion in January. The country has become a reliable outpost for contract manufacturers and Chinese multinationals that were looking to avoid the Section 301 tariffs. Even with historic high tariffs on China today, Vietnam, which was subject to nearly 50% tariffs before this week’s 90-day pause, is still an attractive destination for China companies faced with higher duties if exported from the mainland.
The deeper crisis is the staggering and persistent deficits in pharmaceuticals, metals, and agriculture—proof of an economy hollowed out by offshoring and decades of policy failure. If we want real prosperity and national economic security, we need an aggressive trade and industrial strategy to rebuild American industry.
MADE IN AMERICA.
CPA is the leading national, bipartisan organization exclusively representing domestic producers and workers across many industries and sectors of the U.S. economy.
Imports Show Near-Zero Growth Month Over Month As Tariff Reset Begins
Imports did not vanish, but their growth rate was flat at zero percent in February compared to January after nearly two months of importers rushing in orders ahead of tariffs. February goods and services imports were $401 billion, a statistically insignificant change from January, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said.
On the goods side, U.S. imports fell slightly from $328.9 billion worth of goods in February versus $329.4 billion in January. These figures include crude oil, but crude oil imports were about the same in February and January at $13.9 billion, respectively.
So far this year, the goods deficit stands at $302.8 billion, which is up from the $185 billion in the first two months of 2024 due to companies front running the new tariff regime. What we know so far about tariffs is that countries hit with the so-called reciprocal tariffs were given a 90 day reprieve. They still face the 10% baseline tariff, which has not been rescinded. This is the revenue tariff strategy designed to raise revenue to help make the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent. That law expires next year and would massively increase taxes on individuals and companies large and small. USMCA is exempt from those tariffs. We also have Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and automotive.
Imports of car parts and accessories in February were valued at $11.9 billion versus $11.4 billion in January. Passenger car imports were $17 billion versus $17.5 billion in January, so we have not seen any new surge.
Numbers from auto exporting countries like Mexico look benign compared to January. There has been no major jump witnessed in exports in passenger vehicles or parts.
“February’s flat import growth suggests that claims of trade disruptions arising from tariffs were premature. The front-loading of imports witnessed at the end of last year and in January of this year appear to be balancing out, suggesting that tariff policies are fostering predictability and stability for American businesses,” said Mihir Torsekar, CPA’s Senior Economist.
Agriculture Deficit and Pharmaceuticals Deficit Unchanged
Last week, Senate and House Committees heard from new USTR Jamieson Greer. Nearly every member complained about agricultural trade, with House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO-8) noting that “We ran a $32 billion agricultural trade deficit last year.”
Actually, it was $38.2 billion in 2024, and so far this year the U.S. has a $10.5 billion deficit in agricultural commodities, exporting $27.9 billion and importing $38.4 billion year-to-date.
Seafood remains one of our biggest food gaps with the world. The U.S. exported $290 million worth of seafood in February and imported $1.9 billion. Year-to-date, the seafood deficit stands at around $3.73 billion so far this year. How much of this comes from overfished waters in Asia is unknown.
The pharmaceutical industry remains one of the biggest sources of the U.S. trade deficit. In February, the U.S. exported $8.3 billion worth of pharmaceuticals and imported $24.5 billion worth. This includes both branded and generic drugs. The U.S. imports well over half of its generic drug needs.
Another major deficit was in the finished metal shapes category, which are goods often made from steel. The U.S. has a roughly $28 billion deficit in that space, even worse than pharma.
Lastly, on a country by country basis, the China trade deficit fell by $10 billion in February to $21.1 billion. China is the biggest, single source of the U.S. deficit, something that will surely shrink in the months ahead if the 100%+ tariffs remain in place. Switzerland came in second with a $17.7 billion deficit for February, which is unusually high for them. Mexico was stable at $14.8 billion and the EU deficit rose to $25.4 billion from $23.2 billion in January. In fact, the month-over-month deficit with the EU rose by about $1 billion more than the deficit with Mexico.
Vietnam, long considered the go-to alternative to mainland China, has remained steady with a $10.9 billion deficit, down from $12.04 billion in January. The country has become a reliable outpost for contract manufacturers and Chinese multinationals that were looking to avoid the Section 301 tariffs. Even with historic high tariffs on China today, Vietnam, which was subject to nearly 50% tariffs before this week’s 90-day pause, is still an attractive destination for China companies faced with higher duties if exported from the mainland.
MADE IN AMERICA.
CPA is the leading national, bipartisan organization exclusively representing domestic producers and workers across many industries and sectors of the U.S. economy.
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