GM Tops the List of “Most Exposed to China”

New York-based business intelligence firm, Strategy Risks, recently published their annual SR 250 Index of the publicly traded U.S. companies most affected by the U.S.-China “trade war.”  The auto industry remains the most enmeshed in China supply chains, surpassing consumer tech and pharmaceuticals. This year, GM swapped positions with Ford. GM is the most exposed to China while Ford has declined to No. 5.

The broader trend right now for U.S. companies is to choose between derisking from mainland China or manufacturing in China for the Chinese market and broader Asian market, rather than export to the U.S.

“Ford is pursuing the first route, while Tesla has opted for the second — both moves decrease their exposure,” said Isaac Stone Fish, CEO and Founder of Strategy Risks. “Cummins and GM, by contrast, have seemingly yet to commit, which raises their measured risk. In an environment of tariff brinkmanship and strategic rivalry — amplified by the CCP’s industrial policy — firms cannot realistically hope to satisfy both Washington and Beijing simultaneously,” he said.

Supply chain snafus, such as those in recent memory caused by the pandemic, or Beijing imposing its own export restrictions often in retaliation against what Western governments are doing, put these companies’ supply chains at risk – thus raising costs and delivery times.

The SR 250 is designed for investors and companies that partner with the multinationals on this list to gauge their own exposure to U.S.-China politics as the trade war escalates.

GM and No. 2 Cummins, manufacturers of diesel and natural gas engines, increased their scores substantially due to their growing financial dependency on customers in China, Strategy Risks said.

Four companies made the Top 10 for the first time. Motion and control technology manufacturer Parker Hannifin ranks fourth due to high U.S. tariff rates on its China-made goods. Industrial gas company Air Products and Chemicals entered the top 10 because it has more subsidiaries in China than any of the 250 companies in the index.

Semiconductors & Big Pharma in China

Consumer tech (think iPhones) and electronics equipment and components like microchips are exposed to China. Pharmaceuticals are actually less exposed based on Strategy Risks’ metrics, but medical equipment is a top four most exposed industry, trailing automobiles, building materials, and machinery.

There’s been a decrease in overall exposure across the healthcare devices segment, however. One standout is device manufacturer – GE Healthcare. They went to 16th on the SR 250 from 33rd last year. This is due to an increased reliance on Chinese imports. Some 70% of GE Healthcare’s recorded imports to the U.S originate from China.

“Among Big Tech companies, Amazon and Microsoft are most exposed,” said Fish from Strategy Risks. “Both have maintained roughly the same positions they had last year with no substantial changes recorded, as Amazon dropped from 20th to 21st and Microsoft climbed to 28nd from 30th. Microsoft remains surprisingly exposed to China, despite its close ties to the U.S. government and the Department of Defense,” he said.

AMD and Qualcomm are more exposed than average companies in their particular sector – semiconductors. Nvidia is one of the least exposed.

For chipmaker AMD, China sourcing accounts for the majority of their exports to the U.S. and elsewhere, according to Strategy Risks. Qualcomm has a slightly different problem, with nearly 45% of its revenues coming from China. Nvidia’s share is much less, under 10%.

CPA’s take is that industrial policies will play a key role in China derisking. The ‘CHIPS Act’ spurred global chip makers to invest here instead of putting more money to work in Asia.

“Strong executive leadership in the White House also has a role to play,” said Jeff Ferry, CPA’s Chief Economist Emeritus. “Short-term oriented corporate executives have bullied, bulldozed, and sweet-talked the all-too-gullible stuffed shirts in the White House and in Congress into offshoring everything. In today’s world, strong political leadership is what America needs,” he said, to persuade powerful corporations that the future is not simply in Asia, led by China.

For Big Pharma, Merck, Johnson & Johnson, and Pfizer have above average exposure for their sector, while companies like AbbVie and Eli Lilly are below average.

Much of the risk stems from how much money a company has invested in local subsidiaries, how much revenue is China-generated, and partnership it has with state-owned enterprises, among other things.

Big pharma has made China an indispensable nation. Most of them rely on contract manufacturers like Wuxi Apptec to do R&D, and pre-clinical trials. This demand has deepened China’s entire biotech ecosystem.

“American biotechnology once stood at the forefront of global innovation—pioneering precision medicine, cutting-edge cancer treatments, and leading the world in discovery,” said CPA Economist Andrew Rechenberg in his report titled “The New Biotech Cold War.”

Publicly traded U.S. companies have a C-suite full of executives that have “surrendered to cheaper, under-regulated, and riskier jurisdictions abroad—especially in China,” Rechenberg said.

Even though pharma companies are not a top 10 most exposed sector as seen through the Strategy Risks lens, their contracts with China labs is a strategic concern that threatens U.S. leadership in advanced biotech and future medicines.

The SR 250 helps investors, regulators, and senior corporate leaders — especially those in their companies’ government affairs and risk management divisions — understand the levels of China exposure of top US companies and their competitors.

After a recent press conference about China trade by U.S. Trade Ambassador Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, CPA immediately expressed support for the administration’s will to end decades of failed engagement with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The America First trade policy agenda depends on it.

“We strongly support Ambassador Greer and Secretary Bessent’s commitment to restoring America’s economic sovereignty,” said Zach Mottl, Chairman of CPA. “We are no longer in a world where free trade at any cost serves America’s interests. We are in a world where economic strength, production, and national security are one and the same. The era of global dependency on China is over.”

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