Trump is the great American disruptor and there is no going back to pre-2016 thinking on global trade. Members of “polite society” are beside themselves with grief. They don’t understand Trump’s “economic master plan”, Greece’s former Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis wrote in Unherd magazine on Feb. 12.
“Why does the President believe America has been dealt a bad deal?” Varoufakis asks. “His chief complaint is that dollar supremacy may confer huge powers on America’s government and ruling class, but, ultimately, foreigners are using it in ways that guarantee U.S. decline. So what most consider to be America’s exorbitant privilege, he sees as its exorbitant burden.”
Varoufakis’ essay is a must-read for CPA members curious about what a former G-20 Finance Minister (the equivalent of our Treasury Secretary) thinks about the dollar. Even now, with Trump announcing his reciprocal tariffs plan, if a country with 50% tariffs was to lower their tariffs to 3% to match ours, U.S. exports are still expensive for most countries because their currencies are undervalued by comparison.
Since 2011, the U.S. dollar’s value has risen by over 35%, according to theFederal Reserve, making imports more attractive simply because a dollar goes further abroad than it does at home. A July 2024 CPA analysis found that the impact of U.S. dollar overvaluation on American manufacturers was equivalent to a $520 billion import subsidy for foreign goods in 2023. The overvaluation continues to inflate the price of U.S. goods on the global market, making it harder for American exports to compete—especially against China in Asian markets, where much of the world’s economic growth is occurring. In 2023, CPA estimated that the currency effect on U.S. exports amounted to a $341 billion export penalty.
The dollar was 16.8% higher than a basket of foreign currencies in October, based on CPA’s Currency Misalignment Monitor.
“When U.S. deficits exceed some threshold, foreigners will panic. They will sell their dollar-denominated assets and find some other currency to hoard. Americans will be left amid international chaos with a wrecked manufacturing sector, derelict financial markets and an insolvent government. This nightmare scenario has convinced Trump that he is on a mission to save America: that he has a duty to usher in a new international order. And that’s the gist of his plan: to effect in 2025 a decisive anti-Nixon Shock — a global shock that cancels out the work of his predecessor by terminating the Bretton Woods system in 1971 which spearheaded the era of financialization.”
There are several reasons for the strong dollar, of course. One is that it remains the world’s preferred foreign reserve currency. Central banks in countries like China and Japan hold dollar-denominated bonds and cash in their reserves, driving up demand beyond global trade in dollar-priced commodities like oil and soybeans. Additionally, central banks may purchase dollars to deliberately weaken their own currencies. Lastly, the U.S. has the world’s largest securities market, making it a hub for institutional investors from Europe to Japan who invest in American stocks and bonds—further increasing demand for the dollar.
Like any business, investors want their money to stretch as far as possible. In most cases, it goes further in Mexico and Asia than it does in California and Illinois.
For Trump, “American producers are undercut by foreigners whose central bankers exploit a service (dollar reserves) that America provides them for free to keep the dollar overvalued,” Varoufakis writes. “America is undermining itself for the glory of geopolitical power and the opportunity to accumulate other people’s profits. These imported riches benefit Wall Street and realtors, who buy up iconic American hotels in New York City, but only at the expense of the people who elected him twice—Americans who produce goods such as steel and automobiles, which a nation needs to remain viable,” he said.
CPA’s Chief Economist Emeritus, Jeff Ferry, said Varoufakis is right.
“The dollar is a burden for the U.S., and I think his hunch is correct that at some point in this presidency Trump will address that problem,” Ferry said.
Varoufakis should know. When he was Minister of Finance in Greece, he recognized that the euro was a big burden for Greece.
“What he should have done was take Greece out of the euro, while simultaneously implementing controls and discipline to prevent the Greek government bureaucrats and bankers from going wild and indulging in more corruption, inflation, and extravagance,” Ferry said. “The trouble with those like Varoufakis, who are on the far left, is that even though they know in their hearts that tough action is necessary, they can’t bear to implement it. They always want to offer voters a sugar-coated solution but devaluation is not a sugar candy. Devaluing a currency, in the short term, will impact the living standards of labor. The benefits can be strong, but will come through in the medium term.”
MADE IN AMERICA.
CPA is the leading national, bipartisan organization exclusively representing domestic producers and workers across many industries and sectors of the U.S. economy.
Former Greek Finance Minister Breaks Down Trump’s ‘Economic Master Plan’—A Must-Read Analysis
Trump is the great American disruptor and there is no going back to pre-2016 thinking on global trade. Members of “polite society” are beside themselves with grief. They don’t understand Trump’s “economic master plan”, Greece’s former Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis wrote in Unherd magazine on Feb. 12.
“Why does the President believe America has been dealt a bad deal?” Varoufakis asks. “His chief complaint is that dollar supremacy may confer huge powers on America’s government and ruling class, but, ultimately, foreigners are using it in ways that guarantee U.S. decline. So what most consider to be America’s exorbitant privilege, he sees as its exorbitant burden.”
Varoufakis’ essay is a must-read for CPA members curious about what a former G-20 Finance Minister (the equivalent of our Treasury Secretary) thinks about the dollar. Even now, with Trump announcing his reciprocal tariffs plan, if a country with 50% tariffs was to lower their tariffs to 3% to match ours, U.S. exports are still expensive for most countries because their currencies are undervalued by comparison.
Since 2011, the U.S. dollar’s value has risen by over 35%, according to the Federal Reserve, making imports more attractive simply because a dollar goes further abroad than it does at home. A July 2024 CPA analysis found that the impact of U.S. dollar overvaluation on American manufacturers was equivalent to a $520 billion import subsidy for foreign goods in 2023. The overvaluation continues to inflate the price of U.S. goods on the global market, making it harder for American exports to compete—especially against China in Asian markets, where much of the world’s economic growth is occurring. In 2023, CPA estimated that the currency effect on U.S. exports amounted to a $341 billion export penalty.
The dollar was 16.8% higher than a basket of foreign currencies in October, based on CPA’s Currency Misalignment Monitor.
There are several reasons for the strong dollar, of course. One is that it remains the world’s preferred foreign reserve currency. Central banks in countries like China and Japan hold dollar-denominated bonds and cash in their reserves, driving up demand beyond global trade in dollar-priced commodities like oil and soybeans. Additionally, central banks may purchase dollars to deliberately weaken their own currencies. Lastly, the U.S. has the world’s largest securities market, making it a hub for institutional investors from Europe to Japan who invest in American stocks and bonds—further increasing demand for the dollar.
Like any business, investors want their money to stretch as far as possible. In most cases, it goes further in Mexico and Asia than it does in California and Illinois.
For Trump, “American producers are undercut by foreigners whose central bankers exploit a service (dollar reserves) that America provides them for free to keep the dollar overvalued,” Varoufakis writes. “America is undermining itself for the glory of geopolitical power and the opportunity to accumulate other people’s profits. These imported riches benefit Wall Street and realtors, who buy up iconic American hotels in New York City, but only at the expense of the people who elected him twice—Americans who produce goods such as steel and automobiles, which a nation needs to remain viable,” he said.
CPA’s Chief Economist Emeritus, Jeff Ferry, said Varoufakis is right.
“The dollar is a burden for the U.S., and I think his hunch is correct that at some point in this presidency Trump will address that problem,” Ferry said.
Varoufakis should know. When he was Minister of Finance in Greece, he recognized that the euro was a big burden for Greece.
“What he should have done was take Greece out of the euro, while simultaneously implementing controls and discipline to prevent the Greek government bureaucrats and bankers from going wild and indulging in more corruption, inflation, and extravagance,” Ferry said. “The trouble with those like Varoufakis, who are on the far left, is that even though they know in their hearts that tough action is necessary, they can’t bear to implement it. They always want to offer voters a sugar-coated solution but devaluation is not a sugar candy. Devaluing a currency, in the short term, will impact the living standards of labor. The benefits can be strong, but will come through in the medium term.”
MADE IN AMERICA.
CPA is the leading national, bipartisan organization exclusively representing domestic producers and workers across many industries and sectors of the U.S. economy.
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