The sulfur trade still runs one way. The United States places no condition on who buys American sulfur, including Chinese state-owned enterprises, while Beijing bars its phosphate fertilizer and most sulfuric acid from world markets. U.S. sulfur exports rose 57 percent in January–July 2026, imports cost 2.5 times more per ton than a year earlier, and Mosaic idled a Florida mine for lack of sulfur.
China is prioritizing its own supply during a global shortage.DAP and MAP exports fell about 95 percent through September, removing roughly 3.58 million metric tons from world trade.
The pressure reaches American farms. Retail DAP reached $939 per short ton and MAP $983 in late October, and import unit values are up 12 percent on a year earlier.
The U.S. must secure inputs and expand capacity together. Secure domestic sulfur access, open a fertilizer Section 232 investigation, retain the trade remedies that protect American producers, and accelerate production.
Sulfur Goes Out, Fertilizer Does Not Come Back
In July, CPA’s Food Security Is Fertilizer Security warned that foreign governments were working both ends of the supply chain: buying the raw materials American producers need while banning the return flow of acid and finished fertilizer. Three months later, no restriction, condition or monitoring requirement applies to American sulfur exports, whoever the buyer. USGS reports domestic sulfur exports of 1.65 million metric tons worth about $1.04 billion in January–July 2026, against 1.05 million tons worth $221 million a year earlier. Export volume is up roughly 57 percent while Mosaic says its South Fort Meade operation is being idled because of continuing global sulfur constraints. And America is buying the same material back at war-elevated prices: Census data show 1.21 million metric tons of sulfur imported in January–August 2026, almost all from Canada, at an average import unit value of $444 per metric ton against $180 a year earlier. The import bill rose from $151 million to $537 million, and August cargoes landed at $655 per ton.
China, meanwhile, keeps buying and does not sell back. China imported 3.06 million metric tons of sulfur in January–September, 432,000 tons of it from Canada, and S&P reports government sulfur discounts for domestic phosphate producers meant to support domestic supply, not exports. Its sulfuric acid exports remained 92 percent below a year earlier in September, and its phosphate exports have all but stopped.
The Expected Reopening Has Not Arrived
Beijing’s own December guidance set August 2026 as the endpoint of the suspension, Reuters reported in March that industry insiders expected shipments to resume after August, and as late as July Argus still forecast 700,000 metric tons of Chinese phosphate exports this year. However, this relief never materialized. On September 2, S&P Global reported that Chinese producers had yet to receive official guidance on reopening exports; on September 11 a Qingdao-based exporter reported that plants and trading houses were not accepting new DAP or MAP export declarations and no clearances had succeeded.
This is not new behavior. China imposed mandatory export inspections on fertilizer in October 2021, cut phosphate export quotas by roughly 45 percent in 2022, asked producers to halt urea exports in September 2023, and did so again in June 2024 alongside tighter phosphate inspections. The 2026 episode is the most aggressive yet, but the pattern is five years old: exports open when domestic warehouses are full and shut when they are not. China is not a reliable trade partner.
Selective Exports Protect Domestic Supply
China’s export restrictions are a primary cause of the current shortage. China shipped 5.3 million metric tons of DAP and MAP in 2025, roughly a third of world trade, so the 3.58 million tons it has withheld this year is not a domestic adjustment; it moves the global price. And the withholding is a choice, not a symptom of scarcity. Once domestic urea warehouses filled, September urea exports hit a record 2.45 million metric tons, more than four times August’s volume, and S&P reports superphosphates are export-eligible while DAP and MAP stay shut. Beijing releases surplus when it can offload its excess capacity and withholds phosphate when it can take advantage of the global supply pressure, while drawing 3.06 million tons of sulfur from the open market to make the product it will not sell back. It relies on everyone else’s willingness to trade while suspending its own.
The point of that selectivity is price. Keeping phosphate home holds Chinese domestic prices below what the rest of the world pays. SunSirs reported mid-October quotations as low as 3,900 yuan per metric ton (about $550) for 57 percent brown-grade DAP in Shandong; like-for-like, 64 percent granular quotations imply Chinese domestic DAP roughly 6 to 12 percent below the World Bank’s September U.S. Gulf benchmark of $800.60.
Every country that built its supply around Chinese tons is now finding out whether the next planting season will be supplied, on the schedule of a government on the other side of the world. The error is America’s: it sells its own inputs to anyone without condition, and it is now having to buy back finished product at war-elevated prices.
American Farmers Still Face High Costs
DTN’s latest survey, published October 28, puts retail DAP at $939 per short ton and MAP at $983 for October 19–23, $13 and $51 above a year earlier. The import data tell the same story. Census records 977,000 metric tons of DAP and MAP imported in January–August 2026 at an average import unit value of $727 per metric ton, up 12 percent from $647 a year earlier and 24 percent from $584 in 2024, on volumes 41 percent below 2024.
Argus analyst Jay Harland now expects Chinese DAP and MAP exports to resume no sooner than May 2027, with risk of further delay if input costs stay high, so Chinese supply offers no help with U.S. spring procurement. America sells the input to anyone without condition and buys the finished fertilizer back from third countries at war-elevated prices, while China, which buys that same input, keeps its finished product at home. The answer is not to ask Beijing to be more generous, nor to shift dependence to Rabat.
In August, the second full month after the duty suspension for Moroccan phosphate took effect, Census records 111,400 metric tons of Moroccan phosphate fertilizer worth $67 million — 24,500 tons of DAP and MAP plus 86,900 tons of triple superphosphate, the first Moroccan TSP since April 2025 — against 21,300 tons in August 2025. That is subsidized state-monopoly product landing duty-free while a Florida mine idles. Washington must demand reciprocity for those who want to trade with us, and protect capacity at home for the supply American agriculture depends on.
What Washington Should Do
The record in the past three months strengthens the case for action on fertilizers, with immediate attention to the inputs that keep existing plants running.
Close the one-way door on sulfur. Establish an emergency elemental-sulfur reserve, improve transport to phosphate producers, and give domestic users a first opportunity to purchase available supply on transparent commercial terms. Pair that with a reciprocity rule keyed to beneficial ownership, so governments that ban the return flow of acid and fertilizer cannot buy American sulfur through intermediaries.
Open a fertilizer-specific Section 232 investigation. Assess finished nutrients and their inputs together, and sequence phased import measures with verified domestic capacity, exempting inputs not yet available at home.
Accelerate domestic mining, processing and sulfur recovery. China’s selective reopening demonstrates why American planting seasons cannot depend on discretionary foreign export approvals.
MADE IN AMERICA.
CPA is the leading national, bipartisan organization exclusively representing domestic producers and workers across many industries and sectors of the U.S. economy.
China’s Fertilizer Export Restrictions Are Still in Place and Harming American Agriculture
KEY POINTS
Sulfur Goes Out, Fertilizer Does Not Come Back
In July, CPA’s Food Security Is Fertilizer Security warned that foreign governments were working both ends of the supply chain: buying the raw materials American producers need while banning the return flow of acid and finished fertilizer. Three months later, no restriction, condition or monitoring requirement applies to American sulfur exports, whoever the buyer. USGS reports domestic sulfur exports of 1.65 million metric tons worth about $1.04 billion in January–July 2026, against 1.05 million tons worth $221 million a year earlier. Export volume is up roughly 57 percent while Mosaic says its South Fort Meade operation is being idled because of continuing global sulfur constraints. And America is buying the same material back at war-elevated prices: Census data show 1.21 million metric tons of sulfur imported in January–August 2026, almost all from Canada, at an average import unit value of $444 per metric ton against $180 a year earlier. The import bill rose from $151 million to $537 million, and August cargoes landed at $655 per ton.
China, meanwhile, keeps buying and does not sell back. China imported 3.06 million metric tons of sulfur in January–September, 432,000 tons of it from Canada, and S&P reports government sulfur discounts for domestic phosphate producers meant to support domestic supply, not exports. Its sulfuric acid exports remained 92 percent below a year earlier in September, and its phosphate exports have all but stopped.
The Expected Reopening Has Not Arrived
Beijing’s own December guidance set August 2026 as the endpoint of the suspension, Reuters reported in March that industry insiders expected shipments to resume after August, and as late as July Argus still forecast 700,000 metric tons of Chinese phosphate exports this year. However, this relief never materialized. On September 2, S&P Global reported that Chinese producers had yet to receive official guidance on reopening exports; on September 11 a Qingdao-based exporter reported that plants and trading houses were not accepting new DAP or MAP export declarations and no clearances had succeeded.
September’s trade figures show what buyers actually received: Oilchem reported no DAP exports and no agricultural MAP exports. For January–September, Oilchem’s customs compilations put DAP exports at 73,900 metric tons and MAP at 112,600, roughly 95 percent below the same period of 2025. That is about 3.58 million metric tons removed from world trade.
Figure 1. China DAP and MAP exports, January–September, 2024–2026 (million MT)
Note: 2024 — DAP 3.29, MAP 1.57; 2025 — DAP 2.51, MAP 1.25; 2026 — DAP 0.07, MAP 0.11. Sources: China General Administration of Customs data as compiled by Oilchem (2026), Nongzi yu Shichang (2025) and the China Sulphuric Acid Industry Association (2024).
This is not new behavior. China imposed mandatory export inspections on fertilizer in October 2021, cut phosphate export quotas by roughly 45 percent in 2022, asked producers to halt urea exports in September 2023, and did so again in June 2024 alongside tighter phosphate inspections. The 2026 episode is the most aggressive yet, but the pattern is five years old: exports open when domestic warehouses are full and shut when they are not. China is not a reliable trade partner.
Selective Exports Protect Domestic Supply
China’s export restrictions are a primary cause of the current shortage. China shipped 5.3 million metric tons of DAP and MAP in 2025, roughly a third of world trade, so the 3.58 million tons it has withheld this year is not a domestic adjustment; it moves the global price. And the withholding is a choice, not a symptom of scarcity. Once domestic urea warehouses filled, September urea exports hit a record 2.45 million metric tons, more than four times August’s volume, and S&P reports superphosphates are export-eligible while DAP and MAP stay shut. Beijing releases surplus when it can offload its excess capacity and withholds phosphate when it can take advantage of the global supply pressure, while drawing 3.06 million tons of sulfur from the open market to make the product it will not sell back. It relies on everyone else’s willingness to trade while suspending its own.
The point of that selectivity is price. Keeping phosphate home holds Chinese domestic prices below what the rest of the world pays. SunSirs reported mid-October quotations as low as 3,900 yuan per metric ton (about $550) for 57 percent brown-grade DAP in Shandong; like-for-like, 64 percent granular quotations imply Chinese domestic DAP roughly 6 to 12 percent below the World Bank’s September U.S. Gulf benchmark of $800.60.
Every country that built its supply around Chinese tons is now finding out whether the next planting season will be supplied, on the schedule of a government on the other side of the world. The error is America’s: it sells its own inputs to anyone without condition, and it is now having to buy back finished product at war-elevated prices.
American Farmers Still Face High Costs
DTN’s latest survey, published October 28, puts retail DAP at $939 per short ton and MAP at $983 for October 19–23, $13 and $51 above a year earlier. The import data tell the same story. Census records 977,000 metric tons of DAP and MAP imported in January–August 2026 at an average import unit value of $727 per metric ton, up 12 percent from $647 a year earlier and 24 percent from $584 in 2024, on volumes 41 percent below 2024.
Argus analyst Jay Harland now expects Chinese DAP and MAP exports to resume no sooner than May 2027, with risk of further delay if input costs stay high, so Chinese supply offers no help with U.S. spring procurement. America sells the input to anyone without condition and buys the finished fertilizer back from third countries at war-elevated prices, while China, which buys that same input, keeps its finished product at home. The answer is not to ask Beijing to be more generous, nor to shift dependence to Rabat.
In August, the second full month after the duty suspension for Moroccan phosphate took effect, Census records 111,400 metric tons of Moroccan phosphate fertilizer worth $67 million — 24,500 tons of DAP and MAP plus 86,900 tons of triple superphosphate, the first Moroccan TSP since April 2025 — against 21,300 tons in August 2025. That is subsidized state-monopoly product landing duty-free while a Florida mine idles. Washington must demand reciprocity for those who want to trade with us, and protect capacity at home for the supply American agriculture depends on.
What Washington Should Do
The record in the past three months strengthens the case for action on fertilizers, with immediate attention to the inputs that keep existing plants running.
MADE IN AMERICA.
CPA is the leading national, bipartisan organization exclusively representing domestic producers and workers across many industries and sectors of the U.S. economy.
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