The November trade deficit numbers returned to a more normal figure, with the services surplus still in the $20s to low $30 billion range, and the goods deficit jumping from the October lull.
A few immediate takeaways here from Thursday’s Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) spreadsheet: First, any cheering over the October goods deficit falling to a low $58.9 billion was misplaced. Assumptions that the October trade figures were an example of tariffs working were a bit impatient. We needed to see November and December import data to set a trend and that trend was quickly reversed. The November goods deficit was $86.9 billion. Second, despite the Real Effective Exchange Rate of the dollar falling over the last 12 months and again in the fourth quarter, a cheaper dollar did not lead to an export bump, nor did it curb imports as a weaker dollar means imports are more expensive.
“The idea that a weaker dollar automatically improves the trade balance is outdated. With production offshore and imports structurally locked in, exchange-rate moves don’t translate into fewer imports or more exports on a month-to-month basis.”
There are some import items that reveal a few obvious economic trends, however. Computer imports are booming, rising $6.6 billion over October to $24.8 billion. Computer imports between January and November are up $84.7 billion from the prior year. The BEA does not provide any analysis as to why computer imports are rising, or what type of computers are being imported, but it seems safe to say that the build out of AI data centers is the likely cause.
Pharmaceutical imports rose by $6.7 billion to $21.1 billion in November. That number looks more like what we saw during the pandemic. The U.S. imported $47.4 billion more in pharmaceuticals in the first 11 months of 2025 than in 2024.
The pharmaceuticals and computers deficit is a large portion of our overall goods trade gap. The difference between U.S. pharma exports and imports for the first 11 months of 2025 was $161.7 billion. The deficit for computers over the 11 month period is around $151 billion. Taken together, pharma and computers (not counting computer accessories) adds $312 billion to the $1.14 trillion goods deficit. That means those two items alone account for 27.4% of the U.S. trade deficit in 2025.
Top Deficit Items Jan–Feb 2025
Figures below focused on the top five imports by value.
Imports Jan-Nov 2025
Exports Jan-Nov 2025
Deficit Jan-Nov 2025
Pharmaceuticals
$271.41 billion
$109.72 billion
-$161.69 billion
Computers
$191.38 billion
$40.36 billion
-$151.02 billion
Passenger cars
$165.98 billion
$48.23 billion
-$117.75 billion
Crude oil
$129.23 billion
$91.78 billion
-$37.45 billion
Car parts
$125.59 billion
$52.41 billion
-$73.81 billion
Leading exports by value in 2025 ending November include pharmaceuticals, crude oil ($97.7 billion) non monetary gold ($78.07 billion exported), civilian aircraft engines ($69.03 billion) and petroleum products ($67.67 billion). The U.S. does maintain a surplus in non monetary gold and civilian aircraft engines, which is a key manufacturing sector.
The U.S. trade deficit as a percentage of GDP was falling in the fourth quarter. But this might not be enough to promote the tariff policy.
Should the Supreme Court rule that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs, aka the “Liberation Day” tariffs, are illegal and the Trump administration is forced to remove them, importers will flood the zone with goods ahead of expectations of new tariffs to replace IEEPA. This makes it more difficult to assess whether the tariffs will lower the trade deficit. Keep in mind that the Section 232 tariffs are protected and not up for debate. More investigations of those protective tariffs, and changes to existing ones, are being worked on by the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) at the Department of Commerce.
Moreover, a weakening dollar has not yet shown up in the trade figures. December is another month. We shall see if the U.S. will break its record $1.21 trillion goods deficit set in 2024. Assuming the December goods deficit surpasses $66 billion, 2025 will set another trade deficit record, likely requiring a revision of the narrative framing for tariffs in the months ahead as those who stand in opposition to them will use the year-end figures as a means to chip away at the America First Trade Policy agenda.
MADE IN AMERICA.
CPA is the leading national, bipartisan organization exclusively representing domestic producers and workers across many industries and sectors of the U.S. economy.
November Trade Deficit Returns to Normal After October Lull; Record Goods Deficit Likely In 2025
The November trade deficit numbers returned to a more normal figure, with the services surplus still in the $20s to low $30 billion range, and the goods deficit jumping from the October lull.
A few immediate takeaways here from Thursday’s Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) spreadsheet: First, any cheering over the October goods deficit falling to a low $58.9 billion was misplaced. Assumptions that the October trade figures were an example of tariffs working were a bit impatient. We needed to see November and December import data to set a trend and that trend was quickly reversed. The November goods deficit was $86.9 billion. Second, despite the Real Effective Exchange Rate of the dollar falling over the last 12 months and again in the fourth quarter, a cheaper dollar did not lead to an export bump, nor did it curb imports as a weaker dollar means imports are more expensive.
“The idea that a weaker dollar automatically improves the trade balance is outdated. With production offshore and imports structurally locked in, exchange-rate moves don’t translate into fewer imports or more exports on a month-to-month basis.”
There are some import items that reveal a few obvious economic trends, however. Computer imports are booming, rising $6.6 billion over October to $24.8 billion. Computer imports between January and November are up $84.7 billion from the prior year. The BEA does not provide any analysis as to why computer imports are rising, or what type of computers are being imported, but it seems safe to say that the build out of AI data centers is the likely cause.
Pharmaceutical imports rose by $6.7 billion to $21.1 billion in November. That number looks more like what we saw during the pandemic. The U.S. imported $47.4 billion more in pharmaceuticals in the first 11 months of 2025 than in 2024.
The pharmaceuticals and computers deficit is a large portion of our overall goods trade gap. The difference between U.S. pharma exports and imports for the first 11 months of 2025 was $161.7 billion. The deficit for computers over the 11 month period is around $151 billion. Taken together, pharma and computers (not counting computer accessories) adds $312 billion to the $1.14 trillion goods deficit. That means those two items alone account for 27.4% of the U.S. trade deficit in 2025.
Top Deficit Items Jan–Feb 2025
Figures below focused on the top five imports by value.
Imports Jan-Nov 2025
Exports Jan-Nov 2025
Deficit Jan-Nov 2025
Pharmaceuticals
$271.41 billion
$109.72 billion
-$161.69 billion
Computers
$191.38 billion
$40.36 billion
-$151.02 billion
Passenger cars
$165.98 billion
$48.23 billion
-$117.75 billion
Crude oil
$129.23 billion
$91.78 billion
-$37.45 billion
Car parts
$125.59 billion
$52.41 billion
-$73.81 billion
Leading exports by value in 2025 ending November include pharmaceuticals, crude oil ($97.7 billion) non monetary gold ($78.07 billion exported), civilian aircraft engines ($69.03 billion) and petroleum products ($67.67 billion). The U.S. does maintain a surplus in non monetary gold and civilian aircraft engines, which is a key manufacturing sector.
The U.S. trade deficit as a percentage of GDP was falling in the fourth quarter. But this might not be enough to promote the tariff policy.
Should the Supreme Court rule that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs, aka the “Liberation Day” tariffs, are illegal and the Trump administration is forced to remove them, importers will flood the zone with goods ahead of expectations of new tariffs to replace IEEPA. This makes it more difficult to assess whether the tariffs will lower the trade deficit. Keep in mind that the Section 232 tariffs are protected and not up for debate. More investigations of those protective tariffs, and changes to existing ones, are being worked on by the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) at the Department of Commerce.
Moreover, a weakening dollar has not yet shown up in the trade figures. December is another month. We shall see if the U.S. will break its record $1.21 trillion goods deficit set in 2024. Assuming the December goods deficit surpasses $66 billion, 2025 will set another trade deficit record, likely requiring a revision of the narrative framing for tariffs in the months ahead as those who stand in opposition to them will use the year-end figures as a means to chip away at the America First Trade Policy agenda.
MADE IN AMERICA.
CPA is the leading national, bipartisan organization exclusively representing domestic producers and workers across many industries and sectors of the U.S. economy.
TRENDING
November Trade Deficit Returns to Normal After October Lull; Record Goods Deficit Likely In 2025
Senate Committee: Why Can’t We Label Where Pharmaceuticals Come From?
Who is Really Paying for Trump’s Tariffs?
Why the 2025 Trade Deficit Might Not be as Bad as it Looks
China’s Record Trade Surplus and Washington’s Financial Trump Card
The latest CPA news and updates, delivered every Friday.
WATCH: WORTH FIGHTING FOR
Get the latest in CPA news, industry analysis, opinion, and updates from Team CPA.
CHECK OUT THE NEWSROOM ➔