The trade deficit with China fell in November to $21.59 billion from $25.52 billion in October. The year-to-date deficit is $257.3 billion. It will be one of the lowest deficits with China since the Section 301 tariffs and other geopolitical strains began. However, it is unclear whether this is a flash in the pan as China spent much of the last two years in and out of public health emergencies, forcing lockdowns on factories, and coping with leverage blowouts among some key real estate conglomerates that may have impacted sentiment and China’s ability to move product.
The deficit with Vietnam, a new offshore haven for Chinese manufacturers, fell to $9.31 billion in November from $9.99 billion in October. That deficit is now at around $95.82 billion, or greater than that of other low income nations in the region – namely Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines, combined.
All told, the goods trade deficit with Mexico remained relatively stable in November at $13.8 billion (now at $139.57 billion for Jan-Nov. 2023 time frame) and the deficit with the EU fell to $16.9 billion in November from a $20 billion one in October. The EU deficit with the U.S. is bigger than that of our deficit with Mexico, coming in at $191.2 billion between January and November of 2023. The EU may be full of rich countries, but it is not a big importer of manufactured goods from the U.S. Europe’s top exports here are led by pharmaceuticals and automotive.
The November figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($4.1), Netherlands ($3.0), Hong Kong ($1.8), Australia ($1.4), United Kingdom ($0.6), Singapore ($0.4), Belgium ($0.2), and Brazil (less than $0.1). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($21.5), European Union ($15.6), Mexico ($13.8), Vietnam ($9.7), Canada ($7.8), Japan ($7.1), Germany ($5.6), Taiwan ($4.6), Ireland ($4.4), India ($4.0), Italy ($3.6), South Korea ($3.5), Switzerland ($2.3), Malaysia ($1.7), France ($0.6), Israel ($0.4), and Saudi Arabia ($0.1).
“The US trade deficit continues to run at over 3% of GDP which is too high, and there are signs it could get worse” said CPA chief economist Jeff Ferry. “Boeing, one of our largest exporters, has entered yet another crisis which will damage its global sales, while in the automotive industry, a tidal wave of Chinese-made EVs threatens to overwhelm the US and world markets.”
U.S. Trade Deficit Surprisingly Falls In November But 2023 Goods Deficit Still Over $1 Trillion
The U.S. trade deficit fell by 2% in November over the previous month, with both exports and imports relatively flat ahead of the holiday season. The lower number of imports, down 1.9% to around $316 billion, is surprising given the fact that November is eyeballs deep into the holiday spending rush Bureau of Economic Analysis figures showed on Tuesday.
Those numbers do include the services trade, but when goods data is plucked out of the mix, we can see that the November goods deficit came in at $89.4 billion, down from the $89.9 billion in October. Last year’s good deficit for November was similar – falling from the month of October to $84 billion. But October 2022’s monthly goods gap was $98.2 billion.
As it is, the U.S. will still post over a trillion dollar deficit in goods, the third year in a row now. But the number should come in at around $1.06 trillion. The record deficit was posted in 2022: $1.18 trillion.
Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $161.8 billion, or 18.4%, from the same period in 2022. Exports increased $28.8 billion or 1%, and imports fell by $133.0 billion or 3.6% lower.
The trade deficit with China fell in November to $21.59 billion from $25.52 billion in October. The year-to-date deficit is $257.3 billion. It will be one of the lowest deficits with China since the Section 301 tariffs and other geopolitical strains began. However, it is unclear whether this is a flash in the pan as China spent much of the last two years in and out of public health emergencies, forcing lockdowns on factories, and coping with leverage blowouts among some key real estate conglomerates that may have impacted sentiment and China’s ability to move product.
The deficit with Vietnam, a new offshore haven for Chinese manufacturers, fell to $9.31 billion in November from $9.99 billion in October. That deficit is now at around $95.82 billion, or greater than that of other low income nations in the region – namely Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines, combined.
All told, the goods trade deficit with Mexico remained relatively stable in November at $13.8 billion (now at $139.57 billion for Jan-Nov. 2023 time frame) and the deficit with the EU fell to $16.9 billion in November from a $20 billion one in October. The EU deficit with the U.S. is bigger than that of our deficit with Mexico, coming in at $191.2 billion between January and November of 2023. The EU may be full of rich countries, but it is not a big importer of manufactured goods from the U.S. Europe’s top exports here are led by pharmaceuticals and automotive.
The November figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($4.1), Netherlands ($3.0), Hong Kong ($1.8), Australia ($1.4), United Kingdom ($0.6), Singapore ($0.4), Belgium ($0.2), and Brazil (less than $0.1). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($21.5), European Union ($15.6), Mexico ($13.8), Vietnam ($9.7), Canada ($7.8), Japan ($7.1), Germany ($5.6), Taiwan ($4.6), Ireland ($4.4), India ($4.0), Italy ($3.6), South Korea ($3.5), Switzerland ($2.3), Malaysia ($1.7), France ($0.6), Israel ($0.4), and Saudi Arabia ($0.1).
“The US trade deficit continues to run at over 3% of GDP which is too high, and there are signs it could get worse” said CPA chief economist Jeff Ferry. “Boeing, one of our largest exporters, has entered yet another crisis which will damage its global sales, while in the automotive industry, a tidal wave of Chinese-made EVs threatens to overwhelm the US and world markets.”
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