Geopolitical Failure: China now trades over $164 billion more with AGOA countries annually than the U.S.—and is involved in over a third of all African port developments.
No Development Impact: In 2024, over $18 billion (64%) of AGOA imports were Resource Trap commodities like crude oil, raw minerals, and gold—not industrial goods.
Human Rights Violators Still Benefit: Countries such as Eswatini, Rwanda, Nigeria, and more remain eligible despite persistent rights abuses and governance concerns.
Trade Deficits and Job Losses: The U.S. has never run a trade surplus with AGOA countries, while American workers face mounting pressure from duty-free imports.
$1 Billion in Lost Revenue: The U.S. forfeits $1.01 billion in tariff revenue each year through AGOA’s one-sided trade preferences.
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), enacted in 2000, was designed to promote economic development and democratic reform in Sub-Saharan Africa by granting duty-free access to the U.S. market for thousands of products. To qualify, countries are expected to protect human rights, uphold the rule of law, reduce barriers to trade, and pursue market-based reforms.
However, nearly 25 years later, AGOA has failed to deliver. It has not brought Africa closer to the United States politically, encouraged lasting development, or consistently enforced its own eligibility standards. Meanwhile, U.S. manufacturers face one-sided competition, and the U.S. Treasury forfeits over a billion dollars in tariff revenue each year.
AGOA is set to expire in 2025—and it should not be renewed. It has failed geopolitically, economically, morally, and fiscally. It’s time for a full reset of U.S. trade policy with the region.
AGOA Has Failed as a Geopolitical Tool
AGOA was sold as a tool of American soft power. By offering duty-free access to the U.S. market, Washington hoped to strengthen commercial ties, encourage democratic governance, and later counter China’s growing influence on the African continent. But nearly 25 years later, that theory has collapsed.
Despite AGOA’s promises, the U.S. has been eclipsed. As shown in Figure 1, China now trades over $164 billion more with AGOA countries annually than the United States does.
FIGURE 1:
Meanwhile, U.S. trade with AGOA countries has fallen from its 2008 peak of nearly $99 billion, to only about $46 billion today—a $53 billion (54%) drop. During that same time, Chinese trade with AGOA exploded—reaching over $209 billion in 2024.
AGOA failed to foster pro-American commercial alignment. Instead, African trade flows now bend overwhelmingly toward Beijing.
Meanwhile, U.S. taxpayer-funded market access has produced no binding strategic partnerships, no embedded industrial linkages, and no meaningful soft power gains.
China has outpaced the United States in African geopolitics by embedding itself in the continent’s critical infrastructure. Chinese firms are involved in over a third of all African port developments, many of which are designed with dual-use military capabilities—offering Beijing long-term strategic leverage that unilateral U.S. market access could never deliver. If AGOA was supposed to be a geopolitical wedge, it failed.
AGOA Encourages Dependency, Not Development
Another foundational argument for AGOA is that it promotes development through trade. But rather than fostering industrial diversification, AGOA has reinforced the raw resource dependency and the ‘Resource Curse’ that has historically plagued African economies.
The overwhelming majority of AGOA exports to the United States in 2024 were low-value-added products: crude oil, mineral ores, raw gold, gemstones, and unprocessed agricultural goods. As shown in Figure 2, together, mineral products and precious stones made up over $18 billion (64%) of total AGOA imports. By contrast, industrial inputs—such as machinery, chemicals, or processed goods—were a much smaller portion.
FIGURE 2:
Even textiles—once considered a promising AGOA export category—have stagnated, generating only $1.39 billion in U.S. imports in 2024. Most sectors have failed to scale or move up the value chain.
Instead, AGOA’s one-sided market access model has entrenched extractive industries that fuel authoritarianism, drive conflict, and create economic instability through dependence on volatile commodity prices—rather than fostering long-term, broad-based development.
AGOA Rewards Human Rights Violators with Inconsistent Enforcement
AGOA includes statutory eligibility criteria requiring respect for human rights, labor rights, and democratic governance. In theory, these provisions ensure that U.S. trade benefits align with American values. However, in practice, they are enforced sporadically and selectively.
While some countries like Cameroon (2020) and Ethiopia & Mali (2022) were suspended following documented abuses, others with persistent violations remain eligible. Eswatini remains an absolute monarchy that bans political parties and routinely uses state violence to suppress protests. Rwanda has been credibly accused of cross-border assassinations and domestic repression. Nigeria’s police and military forces continue to face allegations of abuse and impunity.
Yet these countries still enjoy AGOA benefits. The message is clear: human rights enforcement under AGOA is driven more by political convenience than principle. Rather than incentivizing reform, the program often rewards bad governance with duty-free access to the U.S. market.
AGOA Is Bad for U.S. Companies and Workers
Beyond its failures abroad, AGOA undermines American workers and manufacturers at home. The program grants unilateral, zero-tariff access to the U.S. market—without securing reciprocal access for American goods. While AGOA countries maintain their own tariff and non-tariff barriers, U.S. producers are forced to compete on fundamentally unequal terms.
Worse, many AGOA imports directly impact vulnerable U.S. industries—particularly textiles, apparel, leather goods, and processed foods. These products are manufactured under lower labor costs, weaker environmental standards, and often with state support—then enter the U.S. duty-free. The result isn’t development; it’s displacement and industrial decline. AGOA distorts the playing field and accelerates the offshoring of U.S. jobs and production capacity.
The trade data makes the imbalance plain. As Figure 3 shows, the United States has never run a trade surplus with AGOA countries. The program was billed as a win-win. In reality, it has become a one-way giveaway—benefiting overseas producers at the expense of American workers and businesses.
FIGURE 3:
AGOA Forfeits Over $1 Billion in Tariff Revenue Each Year
AGOA doesn’t just harm U.S. industry. It also costs American taxpayers billions in lost tariff revenue. In 2024 alone, the U.S. forfeited an estimated $1.01 billion in revenue by allowing duty-free access to AGOA imports.
Textiles and apparel accounted for the largest share of lost revenue—over $230 million—due to high MFN tariff rates on clothing and footwear. Processed food products, vehicles, and rubber goods added hundreds of millions more. The table below breaks out the tariff loss by product category, showing how AGOA forfeits over $1 billion in tariff revenue annually—without delivering strategic or economic returns.
At a time when tariff revenue is helping stabilize the federal budget—as seen in the unexpected June 2025 surplus driven by rising tariff collections—AGOA stands out as a glaring exception. The program leaves over $1 billion in tariff revenue on the table each year by granting duty-free access without reciprocity or strategic return. These foregone receipts could support industrial investment, infrastructure, lower taxes for working Americans, or deficit reduction. Instead, AGOA gives away U.S. market access for free, undercutting both our fiscal position and our trade balance.
TABLE 1:
Product Category
2024 U.S. AGOA Import Value
Avg. Trade Weighted MFN Tariff Rate
Estimated Tariff Revenue Loss from AGOA Renewal
LIVE ANIMALS; ANIMAL PRODUCTS
$175,262,930
0.5%
$876,315
VEGETABLE PRODUCTS
$792,435,928
0.5%
$3,962,180
ANIMAL OR VEGETABLE FATS AND OILS
$38,336,517
2.0%
$766,730
PREPARED FOODSTUFFS; BEVERAGES; TOBACCO
$1,706,833,346
10.0%
$170,683,335
MINERAL PRODUCTS
$8,981,175,036
3.0%
$269,435,251
CHEMICAL PRODUCTS
$858,168,325
4.0%
$34,326,733
PLASTICS AND RUBBER
$404,441,222
6.0%
$24,266,473
LEATHER, TRAVEL GOODS
$32,233,616
11.0%
$3,545,698
WOOD, CORK, BASKETWARE
$93,302,616
1.5%
$1,399,539
PULP, PAPER, PAPERBOARD
$39,474,197
1.0%
$394,742
TEXTILES AND TEXTILE ARTICLES
$1,279,517,131
18.0%
$230,313,084
FOOTWEAR, HEADGEAR, ETC.
$76,652,040
15.0%
$11,497,806
STONE, CERAMIC, GLASSWARE
$115,983,259
5.0%
$5,799,163
PRECIOUS STONES, METALS, COINS
$9,757,613,600
1.0%
$97,576,136
BASE METALS AND ARTICLES
$1,696,547,401
5.0%
$84,827,370
MACHINERY, ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT
$459,611,718
2.0%
$9,192,234
VEHICLES, AIRCRAFT, VESSELS
$2,424,114,960
2.5%
$60,602,874
OPTICAL, MEDICAL, INSTRUMENTS
$49,105,848
3.5%
$1,718,705
ARMS AND AMMUNITION
$9,219,870
4.0%
$368,795
MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED ARTICLES
$28,265,464
5.0%
$1,413,273
WORKS OF ART, ANTIQUES
$66,881,967
0.0%
$0
Grand Total
$29,085,176,991
$1,012,966,435
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Time for a Strategic Reset
AGOA is a legacy program from a different era—one built on economic and geopolitical assumptions that no longer hold. Policymakers once believed that globalization would foster democracy, that free market access would win allies, and that one-sided trade preferences were a cheap way to gain influence. But nearly 25 years later, those theories have collapsed.
Renewing AGOA would entrench a failed model—one that fuels raw material dependency, overlooks human rights violations, harms U.S. workers, and subsidizes countries drifting further into China’s economic orbit. It is not trade policy—it’s a one-sided subsidy to regimes that undermine both American interests and values.
The United States needs a smarter approach: one based on domestic economic performance and strategic industrial planning. The U.S. should not sacrifice American workers or businesses for trade agreement “wins.” Trade policy should focus on defending and rebuilding manufacturing here at home, not chasing foreign markets or allies.
AGOA had 25 years to bring Africa closer and lift both sides. Instead, it drained American industry, rewarded dictators, forfeited billions in revenue—and let China take the lead. That’s not strategy. That’s wishful thinking. It’s time to replace it with a trade policy that actually serves American interests.
Notes: Methodology for Estimating Tariff Revenue Loss from AGOA Renewal
Estimated tariff revenue loss is calculated by applying the average Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff rate to the 2024 import value of each product category from AGOA-eligible countries. These figures assume that, in the absence of AGOA, these imports would be subject to standard U.S. MFN duties as published in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule.
Tariff Revenue Loss=Import Value × MFN Tariff Rate
MFN rates are trade-weighted estimates based on typical product-level U.S. tariff schedules.
Tariff rates vary widely by sector: for example, textiles and footwear face some of the highest MFN duties (up to 18–32%), while mineral products and machinery face much lower rates (0–5%).
All figures are rounded to the nearest dollar and reflect calendar year 2024.
MADE IN AMERICA.
CPA is the leading national, bipartisan organization exclusively representing domestic producers and workers across many industries and sectors of the U.S. economy.
Rechenberg: Why the United States Should Not Renew AGOA
KEY POINTS
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), enacted in 2000, was designed to promote economic development and democratic reform in Sub-Saharan Africa by granting duty-free access to the U.S. market for thousands of products. To qualify, countries are expected to protect human rights, uphold the rule of law, reduce barriers to trade, and pursue market-based reforms.
However, nearly 25 years later, AGOA has failed to deliver. It has not brought Africa closer to the United States politically, encouraged lasting development, or consistently enforced its own eligibility standards. Meanwhile, U.S. manufacturers face one-sided competition, and the U.S. Treasury forfeits over a billion dollars in tariff revenue each year.
AGOA is set to expire in 2025—and it should not be renewed. It has failed geopolitically, economically, morally, and fiscally. It’s time for a full reset of U.S. trade policy with the region.
AGOA Has Failed as a Geopolitical Tool
AGOA was sold as a tool of American soft power. By offering duty-free access to the U.S. market, Washington hoped to strengthen commercial ties, encourage democratic governance, and later counter China’s growing influence on the African continent. But nearly 25 years later, that theory has collapsed.
Despite AGOA’s promises, the U.S. has been eclipsed. As shown in Figure 1, China now trades over $164 billion more with AGOA countries annually than the United States does.
FIGURE 1:
Meanwhile, U.S. trade with AGOA countries has fallen from its 2008 peak of nearly $99 billion, to only about $46 billion today—a $53 billion (54%) drop. During that same time, Chinese trade with AGOA exploded—reaching over $209 billion in 2024.
AGOA failed to foster pro-American commercial alignment. Instead, African trade flows now bend overwhelmingly toward Beijing.
Meanwhile, U.S. taxpayer-funded market access has produced no binding strategic partnerships, no embedded industrial linkages, and no meaningful soft power gains.
China has outpaced the United States in African geopolitics by embedding itself in the continent’s critical infrastructure. Chinese firms are involved in over a third of all African port developments, many of which are designed with dual-use military capabilities—offering Beijing long-term strategic leverage that unilateral U.S. market access could never deliver. If AGOA was supposed to be a geopolitical wedge, it failed.
AGOA Encourages Dependency, Not Development
Another foundational argument for AGOA is that it promotes development through trade. But rather than fostering industrial diversification, AGOA has reinforced the raw resource dependency and the ‘Resource Curse’ that has historically plagued African economies.
The overwhelming majority of AGOA exports to the United States in 2024 were low-value-added products: crude oil, mineral ores, raw gold, gemstones, and unprocessed agricultural goods. As shown in Figure 2, together, mineral products and precious stones made up over $18 billion (64%) of total AGOA imports. By contrast, industrial inputs—such as machinery, chemicals, or processed goods—were a much smaller portion.
FIGURE 2:
Even textiles—once considered a promising AGOA export category—have stagnated, generating only $1.39 billion in U.S. imports in 2024. Most sectors have failed to scale or move up the value chain.
Instead, AGOA’s one-sided market access model has entrenched extractive industries that fuel authoritarianism, drive conflict, and create economic instability through dependence on volatile commodity prices—rather than fostering long-term, broad-based development.
AGOA Rewards Human Rights Violators with Inconsistent Enforcement
AGOA includes statutory eligibility criteria requiring respect for human rights, labor rights, and democratic governance. In theory, these provisions ensure that U.S. trade benefits align with American values. However, in practice, they are enforced sporadically and selectively.
While some countries like Cameroon (2020) and Ethiopia & Mali (2022) were suspended following documented abuses, others with persistent violations remain eligible. Eswatini remains an absolute monarchy that bans political parties and routinely uses state violence to suppress protests. Rwanda has been credibly accused of cross-border assassinations and domestic repression. Nigeria’s police and military forces continue to face allegations of abuse and impunity.
Yet these countries still enjoy AGOA benefits. The message is clear: human rights enforcement under AGOA is driven more by political convenience than principle. Rather than incentivizing reform, the program often rewards bad governance with duty-free access to the U.S. market.
AGOA Is Bad for U.S. Companies and Workers
Beyond its failures abroad, AGOA undermines American workers and manufacturers at home. The program grants unilateral, zero-tariff access to the U.S. market—without securing reciprocal access for American goods. While AGOA countries maintain their own tariff and non-tariff barriers, U.S. producers are forced to compete on fundamentally unequal terms.
Worse, many AGOA imports directly impact vulnerable U.S. industries—particularly textiles, apparel, leather goods, and processed foods. These products are manufactured under lower labor costs, weaker environmental standards, and often with state support—then enter the U.S. duty-free. The result isn’t development; it’s displacement and industrial decline. AGOA distorts the playing field and accelerates the offshoring of U.S. jobs and production capacity.
The trade data makes the imbalance plain. As Figure 3 shows, the United States has never run a trade surplus with AGOA countries. The program was billed as a win-win. In reality, it has become a one-way giveaway—benefiting overseas producers at the expense of American workers and businesses.
FIGURE 3:
AGOA Forfeits Over $1 Billion in Tariff Revenue Each Year
AGOA doesn’t just harm U.S. industry. It also costs American taxpayers billions in lost tariff revenue. In 2024 alone, the U.S. forfeited an estimated $1.01 billion in revenue by allowing duty-free access to AGOA imports.
Textiles and apparel accounted for the largest share of lost revenue—over $230 million—due to high MFN tariff rates on clothing and footwear. Processed food products, vehicles, and rubber goods added hundreds of millions more. The table below breaks out the tariff loss by product category, showing how AGOA forfeits over $1 billion in tariff revenue annually—without delivering strategic or economic returns.
At a time when tariff revenue is helping stabilize the federal budget—as seen in the unexpected June 2025 surplus driven by rising tariff collections—AGOA stands out as a glaring exception. The program leaves over $1 billion in tariff revenue on the table each year by granting duty-free access without reciprocity or strategic return. These foregone receipts could support industrial investment, infrastructure, lower taxes for working Americans, or deficit reduction. Instead, AGOA gives away U.S. market access for free, undercutting both our fiscal position and our trade balance.
TABLE 1:
Product Category
2024 U.S. AGOA Import Value
Avg. Trade Weighted MFN Tariff Rate
Estimated Tariff Revenue Loss from AGOA Renewal
LIVE ANIMALS; ANIMAL PRODUCTS
$175,262,930
0.5%
$876,315
VEGETABLE PRODUCTS
$792,435,928
0.5%
$3,962,180
ANIMAL OR VEGETABLE FATS AND OILS
$38,336,517
2.0%
$766,730
PREPARED FOODSTUFFS; BEVERAGES; TOBACCO
$1,706,833,346
10.0%
$170,683,335
MINERAL PRODUCTS
$8,981,175,036
3.0%
$269,435,251
CHEMICAL PRODUCTS
$858,168,325
4.0%
$34,326,733
PLASTICS AND RUBBER
$404,441,222
6.0%
$24,266,473
LEATHER, TRAVEL GOODS
$32,233,616
11.0%
$3,545,698
WOOD, CORK, BASKETWARE
$93,302,616
1.5%
$1,399,539
PULP, PAPER, PAPERBOARD
$39,474,197
1.0%
$394,742
TEXTILES AND TEXTILE ARTICLES
$1,279,517,131
18.0%
$230,313,084
FOOTWEAR, HEADGEAR, ETC.
$76,652,040
15.0%
$11,497,806
STONE, CERAMIC, GLASSWARE
$115,983,259
5.0%
$5,799,163
PRECIOUS STONES, METALS, COINS
$9,757,613,600
1.0%
$97,576,136
BASE METALS AND ARTICLES
$1,696,547,401
5.0%
$84,827,370
MACHINERY, ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT
$459,611,718
2.0%
$9,192,234
VEHICLES, AIRCRAFT, VESSELS
$2,424,114,960
2.5%
$60,602,874
OPTICAL, MEDICAL, INSTRUMENTS
$49,105,848
3.5%
$1,718,705
ARMS AND AMMUNITION
$9,219,870
4.0%
$368,795
MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED ARTICLES
$28,265,464
5.0%
$1,413,273
WORKS OF ART, ANTIQUES
$66,881,967
0.0%
$0
Grand Total
$29,085,176,991
$1,012,966,435
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Time for a Strategic Reset
AGOA is a legacy program from a different era—one built on economic and geopolitical assumptions that no longer hold. Policymakers once believed that globalization would foster democracy, that free market access would win allies, and that one-sided trade preferences were a cheap way to gain influence. But nearly 25 years later, those theories have collapsed.
Renewing AGOA would entrench a failed model—one that fuels raw material dependency, overlooks human rights violations, harms U.S. workers, and subsidizes countries drifting further into China’s economic orbit. It is not trade policy—it’s a one-sided subsidy to regimes that undermine both American interests and values.
The United States needs a smarter approach: one based on domestic economic performance and strategic industrial planning. The U.S. should not sacrifice American workers or businesses for trade agreement “wins.” Trade policy should focus on defending and rebuilding manufacturing here at home, not chasing foreign markets or allies.
AGOA had 25 years to bring Africa closer and lift both sides. Instead, it drained American industry, rewarded dictators, forfeited billions in revenue—and let China take the lead. That’s not strategy. That’s wishful thinking. It’s time to replace it with a trade policy that actually serves American interests.
Notes: Methodology for Estimating Tariff Revenue Loss from AGOA Renewal
Estimated tariff revenue loss is calculated by applying the average Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff rate to the 2024 import value of each product category from AGOA-eligible countries. These figures assume that, in the absence of AGOA, these imports would be subject to standard U.S. MFN duties as published in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule.
Tariff Revenue Loss=Import Value × MFN Tariff Rate
MADE IN AMERICA.
CPA is the leading national, bipartisan organization exclusively representing domestic producers and workers across many industries and sectors of the U.S. economy.
TRENDING
Senate Finance Hearing: Pro-USMCA and Decisively Anti-Tariff on Mexico and Canada
CPA Applauds Cassidy, Whitehouse Bill to Close Customs Loophole, Strengthen American Manufacturers
CPA: Tax Foundation’s “$1,000 Per Household” Tariff Claim is Economic Malpractice
CPA Applauds Administration’s Recognition of Pharmaceuticals Import Risk in India Interim Agreement
Import Alert: India Drug Maker Recalls Cholesterol Meds Due To Manufacturing Defects
The latest CPA news and updates, delivered every Friday.
WATCH: WORTH FIGHTING FOR
Get the latest in CPA news, industry analysis, opinion, and updates from Team CPA.
CHECK OUT THE NEWSROOM ➔