Import Dependence and Inflation – A Global Comparison

  By Amanda Mayoral   Summary Points Higher import dependence makes countries more vulnerable to price shocks Countries that are more import dependent often experienced higher inflation during recent supply chain shocks than less import dependent countries. Comparing countries globally, every four percentage point increase in import dependence is associated with a one percentage point increase…

New CPA Trade Model Shows Broad Tariffs Would Create 7.5M Jobs

  By Jeff Ferry and Amanda Mayoral Broad-based tariffs including tariffs on manufactured imports would boost U.S. economy by 6% and create 7.5 million jobs. Real household incomes rise by 8%. Tariffs reduce imports and stimulate domestic manufacturing output by 18%. Tariffs would generate $556 billion in new revenue, enabling cuts in income tax or…

Pro-Growth Tariffs: Estimates from CPA’s New Trade Model

  By Jeff Ferry and Amanda Mayoral   Can tariffs can be effective at raising domestic output and income? We introduce real-world factor supply elasticities to the standard Global Trade and Analysis Project (GTAP) and find that real GDP can grow by nearly 6% and domestic manufacturing by 18%. The increase in GDP leads to…

The Importance of Tariffs on the U.S. Solar Market

  By Amanda Mayoral   This article is an expanded version of testimony delivered by Ms. Mayoral to the U.S. International Trade Commission on July 22, 2022.   In his first State of the Union address, President Biden said “When I think about climate change, I think jobs”. I believe the president is correct about…

Despite Soaring Profits, Corporations are Asking the Government for China Tariff Cuts, Consumer Benefit Doubtful

  By Amanda Mayoral   Summary Corporate profits grew by double and sometimes triple digits during the COVID-19 pandemic. Worker wages did not. Record corporate profits did not stop these importers’ lobbyists from pursuing even higher profits by petitioning for 301 China tariffs exemptions. Removing tariffs on Chinese imports will only further enrich transnational enterprises…

U.S. Challenges in EV Battery Production

By Amanda Mayoral   The U.S. is lagging behind China and the European Union in production of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles. Forecasts show the U.S. will fall further behind China by 2025 and remain dependent on imports for more than half of its EV battery needs. This CPA Policy Paper by CPA Economist Amanda…

Tariffs Could Have Helped Us Avoid the Current Inflation Spike

  By Amanda Mayoral   Summary Global supply-chain crises, over-dependence on foreign production and government stimulus best explain the current inflation problem. Policy makers should learn from current crises and enact policies to reduce our strong dependence on unreliable foreign suppliers. Tariffs can cause a one-time rise in prices, but they don’t cause persistent month-after-month…

War in Ukraine Highlights Critical US Dependencies on Russia-China Axis

War in Ukraine Highlights Critical US Dependencies on Russia-China Axis By Jeff Ferry and Amanda Mayoral   Summary Points The Russian invasion of Ukraine reveals the weakness of US industrial strategy and our over-reliance on imports in manufactured goods and raw materials. The US is import-dependent in many industries critical to US national security. A…

We Need to be Better at Industrial Policy

We Need to be Better at Industrial Policy By Amanda Mayoral, CPA Economist   Industrial policy is critical to competing in a global economy and maintaining our national security. In the world of U.S. economic policymaking, we need to stop wasting time debating whether to “do” industrial policy and rather debate how to improve it.…